78%Our win chance22%
Our win chance: BYU 78% · UCF 22% · experimental, see how it is tested
The prediction
·
Our call: BYU by 12.3Strong
All three models favor BYU (SP+ from the week 7 snapshot). The line, shown for comparison only, has BYU by 7.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has BYU by 14.9, Elo has BYU by 9.3, and Our model has BYU by 12.6. They are within 5.6 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ BYU +21.5 vs UCF +4.1 · week 7 ratings | BYU by 14.9 |
| Elo BYU 1740 vs UCF 1445 | BYU by 9.3 |
| Our model · experimental BYU +19.3 vs UCF +4.2 | BYU by 12.6 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | BYU by 7.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | BYU by 12.3 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
UCF
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
Last 5 meetings
BYU leads 4–1 · last: BYU 41–21, 2025 · BYU has won 3 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | BYU 41–21 | LaVell Edwards Stadium |
| 2024 | BYU 37–24 | FBC Mortgage Stadium |
| 2020 | BYU 49–23 | neutral site |
| 2014 | UCF 31–24 | FBC Mortgage Stadium |
| 2011 | BYU 24–17 | LaVell Edwards Stadium |