The 12 most likely, by average seed
- 1Miami >99% bye
- 2Ohio State >99% bye
- 3Notre Dame >99% bye
- 4Georgia >99% bye
- 5Indiana >99% hosts
- 6Texas Tech 80% hosts
- 7James Madison 70% hosts
- 8Utah 77% hosts
- 9BYU 57%
- 10Alabama 97%
- 11Boise State 44%
- 12Texas 46%
A likely field, not a forecast of the committee's exact picks: seeds 1-4 get first-round byes, seeds 5-8 host seeds 12-9 on campus.
Every team's chances
| Team | Record | Playoff | Bye | Host | Conf. title | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notre DameFBS Independents · bye 47% · host 53% · conf. — · title 22% | 6-1 | >99% | 47% | 53% | — | 22% |
| Ohio StateBig Ten · bye 57% · host 41% · conf. 55% · title 17% | 6-1 | >99% | 57% | 41% | 55% | 17% |
| GeorgiaSEC · bye 47% · host 46% · conf. 45% · title 13% | 6-1 | >99% | 47% | 46% | 45% | 13% |
| MiamiACC · bye 77% · host 16% · conf. 76% · title 13% | 6-0 | >99% | 77% | 16% | 76% | 13% |
| IndianaBig Ten · bye 21% · host 71% · conf. 20% · title 10% | 6-1 | >99% | 21% | 71% | 20% | 10% |
| AlabamaSEC · bye 10% · host 45% · conf. 10% · title 7% | 5-2 | 97% | 10% | 45% | 10% | 7% |
| Texas TechBig 12 · bye 34% · host 4% · conf. 34% · title 3% | 6-0 | 80% | 34% | 4% | 34% | 3% |
| UtahBig 12 · bye 30% · host 4% · conf. 30% · title 3% | 6-0 | 77% | 30% | 4% | 30% | 3% |
| James MadisonSun Belt · bye <1% · host 56% · conf. 71% · title <1% | 7-0 | 70% | <1% | 56% | 71% | <1% |
| BYUBig 12 · bye 25% · host 1% · conf. 25% · title 2% | 6-0 | 57% | 25% | 1% | 25% | 2% |
| TexasSEC · bye 6% · host 2% · conf. 6% · title 3% | 4-2 | 46% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 3% |
| Boise StatePac-12 · bye 0% · host 16% · conf. 48% · title <1% | 5-1 | 44% | 0% | 16% | 48% | <1% |
| LSUSEC · bye 6% · host 2% · conf. 6% · title 2% | 5-2 | 42% | 6% | 2% | 6% | 2% |
| New MexicoMountain West · bye 0% · host 3% · conf. 44% · title <1% | 5-1 | 33% | 0% | 3% | 44% | <1% |
| OregonBig Ten · bye 7% · host <1% · conf. 7% · title 2% | 4-2 | 32% | 7% | <1% | 7% | 2% |
| Ole MissSEC · bye 10% · host <1% · conf. 10% · title 1% | 5-1 | 13% | 10% | <1% | 10% | 1% |
| North Dakota StateMountain West · bye 0% · host <1% · conf. 36% · title <1% | 6-1 | 12% | 0% | <1% | 36% | <1% |
| TennesseeSEC · bye 9% · host 2% · conf. 12% · title 1% | 6-1 | 12% | 9% | 2% | 12% | 1% |
| LibertyConference USA · bye 0% · host <1% · conf. 63% · title <1% | 5-1 | 11% | 0% | <1% | 63% | <1% |
| UCLABig Ten · bye 4% · host 5% · conf. 9% · title <1% | 6-0 | 10% | 4% | 5% | 9% | <1% |
| Wake ForestACC · bye <1% · host 8% · conf. 9% · title <1% | 6-1 | 9% | <1% | 8% | 9% | <1% |
| SMUACC · bye <1% · host 6% · conf. 9% · title <1% | 5-1 | 9% | <1% | 6% | 9% | <1% |
| MemphisAmerican Athletic · bye 0% · host <1% · conf. 24% · title <1% | 5-1 | 7% | 0% | <1% | 24% | <1% |
| Oregon StatePac-12 · bye 0% · host <1% · conf. 35% · title <1% | 5-2 | 5% | 0% | <1% | 35% | <1% |
| HoustonBig 12 · bye 1% · host 3% · conf. 5% · title <1% | 6-1 | 5% | 1% | 3% | 5% | <1% |
| ArizonaBig 12 · bye 1% · host 3% · conf. 4% · title <1% | 5-1 | 4% | 1% | 3% | 4% | <1% |
| IowaBig Ten · bye 2% · host 1% · conf. 3% · title <1% | 5-1 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 3% | <1% |
| USCBig Ten · bye 2% · host 1% · conf. 3% · title <1% | 6-1 | 3% | 2% | 1% | 3% | <1% |
| MissouriSEC · bye 1% · host 1% · conf. 3% · title <1% | 5-2 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | <1% |
| FloridaSEC · bye <1% · host 2% · conf. 2% · title <1% | 5-2 | 2% | <1% | 2% | 2% | <1% |
| KentuckySEC · bye 0% · host 1% · conf. 2% · title <1% | 6-1 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | <1% |
| LouisvilleACC · bye 0% · host 1% · conf. 2% · title <1% | 4-3 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | <1% |
| BaylorBig 12 · bye 0% · host 1% · conf. 2% · title <1% | 4-2 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 2% | <1% |
| OklahomaSEC · bye <1% · host 1% · conf. 1% · title <1% | 3-3 | 1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| PittsburghACC · bye 0% · host 1% · conf. 1% · title <1% | 5-2 | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| NorthwesternBig Ten · bye <1% · host 1% · conf. 1% · title <1% | 5-1 | 1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| North TexasAmerican Athletic · bye 0% · host 0% · conf. 27% · title 0% | 4-2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 27% | 0% |
| WisconsinBig Ten · bye 0% · host <1% · conf. 1% · title 0% | 4-2 | 1% | 0% | <1% | 1% | 0% |
| MichiganBig Ten · bye <1% · host <1% · conf. <1% · title <1% | 4-2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Mississippi StateSEC · bye 0% · host <1% · conf. <1% · title <1% | 4-2 | <1% | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Virginia TechACC · bye 0% · host <1% · conf. <1% · title 0% | 5-2 | <1% | 0% | <1% | <1% | 0% |
| AuburnSEC · bye 0% · host <1% · conf. <1% · title 0% | 4-2 | <1% | 0% | <1% | <1% | 0% |
| TCUBig 12 · bye 0% · host <1% · conf. <1% · title 0% | 3-3 | <1% | 0% | <1% | <1% | 0% |
| NebraskaBig Ten · bye <1% · host <1% · conf. <1% · title <1% | 5-2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UTSAAmerican Athletic · bye 0% · host 0% · conf. 21% · title 0% | 6-1 | <1% | 0% | 0% | 21% | 0% |
| DukeACC · bye 0% · host 0% · conf. <1% · title 0% | 4-2 | <1% | 0% | 0% | <1% | 0% |
| Oklahoma StateBig 12 · bye 0% · host 0% · conf. 1% · title 0% | 4-2 | <1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| Kansas StateBig 12 · bye 0% · host <1% · conf. <1% · title 0% | 4-2 | <1% | 0% | <1% | <1% | 0% |
| South CarolinaSEC · bye 0% · host <1% · conf. <1% · title 0% | 3-3 | <1% | 0% | <1% | <1% | 0% |
| VirginiaACC · bye 0% · host 0% · conf. <1% · title 0% | 4-3 | <1% | 0% | 0% | <1% | 0% |
| ClemsonACC · bye 0% · host 0% · conf. 1% · title 0% | 4-2 | <1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| North CarolinaACC · bye 0% · host 0% · conf. <1% · title 0% | 4-2 | <1% | 0% | 0% | <1% | 0% |
| Texas A&MSEC · bye 0% · host <1% · conf. <1% · title 0% | 4-3 | <1% | 0% | <1% | <1% | 0% |
| East CarolinaAmerican Athletic · bye 0% · host 0% · conf. 10% · title 0% | 3-2 | <1% | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| South FloridaAmerican Athletic · bye 0% · host 0% · conf. 3% · title 0% | 5-2 | <1% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| Texas StatePac-12 · bye 0% · host 0% · conf. 10% · title 0% | 3-3 | <1% | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| Air ForceMountain West · bye 0% · host 0% · conf. 9% · title 0% | 5-1 | <1% | 0% | 0% | 9% | 0% |
| Fresno StatePac-12 · bye 0% · host 0% · conf. 4% · title 0% | 4-3 | <1% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
| LouisianaSun Belt · bye 0% · host 0% · conf. 6% · title 0% | 5-2 | <1% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 0% |
| ToledoMid-American · bye 0% · host 0% · conf. 30% · title 0% | 5-2 | <1% | 0% | 0% | 30% | 0% |
| UCFBig 12 · bye 0% · host 0% · conf. <1% · title 0% | 3-3 | <1% | 0% | 0% | <1% | 0% |
How this works
- Every remaining game is played 10,000 times with Our call's numbers: the average of SP+, Elo and Our model, 2.5 points to the home team, with each team's season-long form allowed to drift.
- Conference title games are played between the top two in each simulated standings (simplified tiebreakers).
- The format is the official one for 2026-27: 12 teams, the 5 highest-ranked conference champions in automatically, seeded straight by the final ranking, 4 byes, first-round games on campus (College Football Playoff ›).
- The committee is people. We model wins and losses only. Our stand-in ranks teams by losses, strength, schedule and conference titles, weighted the way the committee ranked teams in 2024 and 2025; once the committee's own rankings start (Tuesday, November 3), each simulation starts from the newest one.
- A chance is how often it happened in the simulations, not a promise. Updated after each game day's finals, every night, and after each committee ranking.
How our simulations did last season experimental
We replayed 2024 and 2025 from mid-season with the same method, each season scored with settings fit on the other.
| Season, week | Real field in our top 12 | In the AP top 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024, week 10 | 8 of 12 | 8 of 12 |
| 2024, week 11 | 9 of 12 | 9 of 12 |
| 2024, week 12 | 8 of 12 | 8 of 12 |
| 2024, week 13 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 12 |
| 2024, week 14 | 10 of 12 | 11 of 12 |
| 2025, week 10 | 9 of 12 | 8 of 12 |
| 2025, week 11 | 9 of 12 | 9 of 12 |
| 2025, week 12 | 9 of 12 | 9 of 12 |
| 2025, week 13 | 10 of 12 | 9 of 12 |
| 2025, week 14 | 9 of 12 | 9 of 12 |
Marked experimental: one of the five targets we set before the replay was missed (10 of 12 by week 14). The misses were mostly conference champions who won their way in late.