15%Our win chance85%
Our win chance: SMU 85% · California 15% · experimental, see how it is tested
The prediction
·
Our call: SMU by 18.2Strong
All three models favor SMU (SP+ from the week 7 snapshot). The line, shown for comparison only, has SMU by 17.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has SMU by 17.8, Elo has SMU by 19.7, and Our model has SMU by 17.0. They are within 2.7 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ California -2.5 vs SMU +12.8 · week 7 ratings | SMU by 17.8 |
| Elo California 1270 vs SMU 1700 | SMU by 19.7 |
| Our model · experimental California -5.3 vs SMU +9.2 | SMU by 17 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | SMU by 17.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | SMU by 18.2 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
California
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
Last 3 meetings
SMU leads 2–1 · last: California 38–35, 2025
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | California 38–35 | California Memorial Stadium |
| 2024 | SMU 38–6 | Gerald J. Ford Stadium |
| 1957 | SMU 13–6 | — |
Team pages
CaliforniaSMU ›Every game's projections ›