73%Our win chance27%
Our win chance: Indiana 73% · Michigan 27% · experimental, see how it is tested
The prediction
·
Our call: Indiana by 9.7Strong
All three models favor Indiana (SP+ from the week 7 snapshot). The line, shown for comparison only, has Indiana by 8.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Indiana by 11.1, Elo has Indiana by 12.1, and Our model has Indiana by 6.0. They are within 6.1 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ Indiana +26.7 vs Michigan +13.1 · week 7 ratings | Indiana by 11.1 |
| Elo Indiana 2088 vs Michigan 1724 | Indiana by 12.1 |
| Our model · experimental Indiana +20.0 vs Michigan +11.5 | Indiana by 6 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Indiana by 8.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Indiana by 9.7 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
Last 5 meetings
Michigan leads 62–11 · last: Indiana 20–15, 2024
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Indiana 20–15 | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) |
| 2023 | Michigan 52–7 | Michigan Stadium |
| 2022 | Michigan 31–10 | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) |
| 2021 | Michigan 29–7 | Michigan Stadium |
| 2020 | Indiana 38–21 | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) |