16%Our win chance84%
Our win chance: UCLA 84% · Michigan State 16% · experimental, see how it is tested
The prediction
·
Our call: UCLA by 14.8Strong
All three models favor UCLA (SP+ from the week 7 snapshot). The line, shown for comparison only, has UCLA by 13.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has UCLA by 19.0, Elo has UCLA by 11.8, and Our model has UCLA by 13.7. They are within 7.2 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ Michigan State -1.2 vs UCLA +15.3 · week 7 ratings | UCLA by 19 |
| Elo Michigan State 1456 vs UCLA 1688 | UCLA by 11.8 |
| Our model · experimental Michigan State -0.8 vs UCLA +10.4 | UCLA by 13.7 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | UCLA by 13.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | UCLA by 14.8 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
Michigan State
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
Last 5 meetings
UCLA leads 4–3 · last: UCLA 38–13, 2025 · UCLA has won 4 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | UCLA 38–13 | Spartan Stadium |
| 1974 | UCLA 56–14 | — |
| 1973 | UCLA 34–21 | — |
| 1965 | UCLA 14–12 | neutral site |
| 1965 | Michigan State 13–3 | — |
Team pages
Michigan StateUCLA ›Every game's projections ›