80%Our win chance20%
Our win chance: Oregon 80% · Illinois 20% · experimental, see how it is tested
The prediction
·
Our call: Oregon by 13.1Strong
All three models favor Oregon (SP+ from the week 7 snapshot). The line, shown for comparison only, has Oregon by 12.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Oregon by 12.7, Elo has Oregon by 9.3, and Our model has Oregon by 17.3. They are within 8.0 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ Oregon +21.0 vs Illinois +5.8 · week 7 ratings | Oregon by 12.7 |
| Elo Oregon 1831 vs Illinois 1536 | Oregon by 9.3 |
| Our model · experimental Oregon +19.9 vs Illinois +0.2 | Oregon by 17.3 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Oregon by 12.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Oregon by 13.1 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
Illinois
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
Last 4 meetings
Oregon leads 3–1 · last: Oregon 38–9, 2024 · Oregon has won 3 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Oregon 38–9 | Autzen Stadium |
| 1995 | Oregon 34–31 | — |
| 1993 | Oregon 13–7 | — |
| 1970 | Illinois 20–16 | — |