17%Our win chance83%
Our win chance: Alabama 83% · Texas A&M 17% · experimental, see how it is tested
The prediction
·
Our call: Alabama by 13.8Strong
All three models favor Alabama (SP+ from the week 7 snapshot). The line, shown for comparison only, has Alabama by 15.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Alabama by 17.5, Elo has Alabama by 10.9, and Our model has Alabama by 13.0. They are within 6.6 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ Texas A&M +8.0 vs Alabama +23.0 · week 7 ratings | Alabama by 17.5 |
| Elo Texas A&M 1739 vs Alabama 1949 | Alabama by 10.9 |
| Our model · experimental Texas A&M +12.4 vs Alabama +22.9 | Alabama by 13 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Alabama by 15.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Alabama by 13.8 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
As of Wed Oct 7, 6:44 AM CT · AI-assisted, from public reporting
- Tiger Riden Jr. RBOut · season
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
Last 5 meetings
Alabama leads 13–3 · last: Alabama 26–20, 2023 · Alabama has won 2 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Alabama 26–20 | Kyle Field |
| 2022 | Alabama 24–20 | Bryant-Denny Stadium |
| 2021 | Texas A&M 41–38 | Kyle Field |
| 2020 | Alabama 52–24 | Bryant-Denny Stadium |
| 2019 | Alabama 47–28 | Kyle Field |