35%Our win chance65%
Our win chance: Kentucky 65% · Vanderbilt 35% · experimental, see how it is tested
The prediction
·
Our call: Kentucky by 6.7Lean
All three models favor Kentucky (SP+ from the week 7 snapshot). The line, shown for comparison only, has Kentucky by 11.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Kentucky by 9.3, Elo has Kentucky by 3.1, and Our model has Kentucky by 7.8. They are within 6.2 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ Vanderbilt +1.2 vs Kentucky +8.0 · week 7 ratings | Kentucky by 9.3 |
| Elo Vanderbilt 1580 vs Kentucky 1594 | Kentucky by 3.1 |
| Our model · experimental Vanderbilt +2.7 vs Kentucky +7.9 | Kentucky by 7.8 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Kentucky by 11.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Lean | Kentucky by 6.7 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
Vanderbilt
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
Last 5 meetings
Kentucky leads 49–42–4 · last: Vanderbilt 45–17, 2025 · Vanderbilt has won 2 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Vanderbilt 45–17 | FirstBank Stadium |
| 2024 | Vanderbilt 20–13 | Kroger Field |
| 2023 | Kentucky 45–28 | FirstBank Stadium |
| 2022 | Vanderbilt 24–21 | Kroger Field |
| 2021 | Kentucky 34–17 | FirstBank Stadium |
Team pages
VanderbiltKentucky ›Every game's projections ›