Our call is the average of SP+, Elo and Our model. The other models are shown and graded beside it, never part of it. Each model is graded on every game it predicted before kickoff, from the first game of the season.
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Our call
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model: the one call this site makes for each game.
Made at every refresh until kickoff, then frozen. Graded from Week 4.
This season: named the winner 57 of 83 (69%), average miss 12.0 points.
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SP+In our call
Bill Connelly's SP+ team ratings; the margin is the gap between the two teams plus home field.
Read each week from CollegeFootballData before the week's games. Graded from Week 2.
This season: named the winner 91 of 122 (75%), average miss 11.2 points.
Source: CollegeFootballData
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EloIn our call
CollegeFootballData's Elo ratings, which move after every game by the result and the opponent.
Read each week from CollegeFootballData before the week's games. Graded from Week 1.
This season: named the winner 113 of 151 (75%), average miss 12.9 points.
Source: CollegeFootballData
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Our modelIn our call
This site's own experimental rating, fit to past seasons' results.
A snapshot each week before the games. Graded from Week 4.
This season: named the winner 63 of 86 (73%), average miss 12.0 points.
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ESPN FPIOutside
ESPN's Football Power Index, read through CollegeFootballData; the margin is the gap plus home field.
Read with the midweek ratings refresh (Monday evening, Tuesday to Friday mornings). Graded from Week 8.
This season: named the winner 0 of 1 (0%), average miss 3.4 points.
Source: ESPN FPI
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SRSOutside
The Simple Rating System from CollegeFootballData: average margin adjusted for the schedule.
Read with the midweek ratings refresh (Monday evening, Tuesday to Friday mornings). Graded from Week 8.
This season: named the winner 1 of 1 (100%), average miss 1.2 points.
Source: CollegeFootballData
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SagarinOutside
Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR ratings, with his own home advantage.
Read from his page with the midweek ratings refresh. Graded from Week 8.
This season: named the winner 0 of 1 (0%), average miss 6.8 points.
Source: sagarin.com
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Sonny MooreOutside
Sonny Moore's power ratings, with 4 points for home field.
Read from his page with the midweek ratings refresh. Graded from Week 8.
This season: named the winner 0 of 1 (0%), average miss 4.6 points.
Source: sonnymoorepowerratings.com
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The MarginOutside
The Margin's own projected margin and win chance for each game (its open data, free to use with credit).
Read with the midweek ratings refresh. Graded from Week 8.
This season: named the winner 1 of 1 (100%), average miss 2.6 points.
Source: The Margin
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Record
Ours: the team with the better record before the week, the home team on equal records. It names a winner only.
Worked out from the season's results before each week. Graded from Week 2.
This season: named the winner 94 of 133 (71%).
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MarketOutside
The market's pregame margin for each game, graded like every other model and never part of our call.
Read from CollegeFootballData before each game. Graded from Week 1.
This season: named the winner 140 of 173 (81%), average miss 11.9 points.
Source: CollegeFootballData
Every record is from the Who's been right table: each model on its own count. How the numbers are made ›