This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Nov 7, 2:30 PM CT · ABC · Tiger Stadium (LA) (Baton Rouge)
Our call: LSU by 3.7 · 59% pregame win chance ✗ wrong
41%Our win chance59%
Our win chance: LSU 59% · Alabama 41% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: Alabama 31, LSU 13 · our call wrong
Final: Alabama 31, LSU 13
Closest: Our model (LSU by 1.6, missed by 19.6). 0 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favored LSU
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ Alabama +20.9 vs LSU +25.2 · week 9 ratings | LSU by 6.8 ✗ | LSU 69% | 24.8 |
| SRS Alabama +23.6 vs LSU +25.9 | LSU by 4.8 ✗ | LSU 64% | 22.8 |
| Sonny Moore Alabama +95.9 vs LSU +96.1 | LSU by 4.2 ✗ | LSU 62% | 22.2 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | LSU by 3.5 ✗ | LSU 60% | 21.5 |
| Sagarin Alabama +90.7 vs LSU +91.0 | LSU by 3.1 ✗ | LSU 59% | 21.1 |
| ESPN FPI Alabama +24.5 vs LSU +24.7 | LSU by 2.7 ✗ | LSU 58% | 20.7 |
| Elo Alabama 1939 vs LSU 1943 | LSU by 2.7 ✗ | LSU 58% | 20.7 |
| The Margin The Margin's model | LSU by 1.8 ✗ | LSU 55% | 19.8 |
| Our model · experimental Closest Alabama +22.4 vs LSU +21.5 | LSU by 1.6 ✗ | LSU 55% | 19.6 |
| Record LSU 6-2, Alabama 6-2 | LSU (better record) ✗ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | LSU by 3.7 ✗ | LSU 59% | 21.7 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All 10 models favored LSU (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had LSU by 6.8, Elo had LSU by 2.7, Our model had LSU by 1.6, ESPN FPI had LSU by 2.7, SRS had LSU by 4.8, Sagarin had LSU by 3.1, Sonny Moore had LSU by 4.2, The Margin had LSU by 1.8, and Market had LSU by 3.5. They were within 5.2 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Nov 7, 2:27 PM CT).
Last 5 meetings
Alabama leads 58–26–5 · last: Alabama 20–9, 2025 · Alabama has won 3 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Alabama 20–9 | Bryant-Denny Stadium |
| 2024 | Alabama 42–13 | Tiger Stadium (LA) |
| 2023 | Alabama 42–28 | Bryant-Denny Stadium |
| 2022 | LSU 32–31 | Tiger Stadium (LA) |
| 2021 | Alabama 20–14 | Bryant-Denny Stadium |