This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Nov 7, 11:45 AM CT · SEC Network · Jordan-Hare Stadium (Auburn)
Our call: Auburn by 10.7 · 76% pregame win chance ✓ right
24%Our win chance76%
Our win chance: Auburn 76% · Arkansas 24% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: Auburn 26, Arkansas 23 · our call right
Final: Auburn 26, Arkansas 23
Closest: Elo (Auburn by 8.1, missed by 5.1). 10 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favored Auburn
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model · experimental Arkansas -1.3 vs Auburn +10.9 | Auburn by 14.7 ✓ | Auburn 86% | 11.7 |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Auburn by 13.2 ✓ | Auburn 83% | 10.2 |
| SRS Arkansas -1.4 vs Auburn +8.0 | Auburn by 11.9 ✓ | Auburn 80% | 8.9 |
| ESPN FPI Arkansas +0.6 vs Auburn +9.6 | Auburn by 11.5 ✓ | Auburn 80% | 8.5 |
| Sonny Moore Arkansas +71.0 vs Auburn +78.5 | Auburn by 11.4 ✓ | Auburn 80% | 8.4 |
| Sagarin Arkansas +72.3 vs Auburn +80.7 | Auburn by 11.1 ✓ | Auburn 79% | 8.1 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Auburn by 10.5 ✓ | Auburn 78% | 7.5 |
| SP+ Arkansas -0.4 vs Auburn +6.5 · week 9 ratings | Auburn by 9.4 ✓ | Auburn 75% | 6.4 |
| Elo Closest Arkansas 1478 vs Auburn 1619 | Auburn by 8.1 ✓ | Auburn 72% | 5.1 |
| Record Auburn 4-4, Arkansas 3-5 | Auburn (better record) ✓ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Auburn by 10.7 ✓ | Auburn 76% | 7.7 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All 10 models favored Auburn (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had Auburn by 9.4, Elo had Auburn by 8.1, Our model had Auburn by 14.7, ESPN FPI had Auburn by 11.5, SRS had Auburn by 11.9, Sagarin had Auburn by 11.1, Sonny Moore had Auburn by 11.4, The Margin had Auburn by 13.2, and Market had Auburn by 10.5. They were within 6.6 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Nov 7, 10:23 AM CT).
Last 5 meetings
Auburn leads 21–13–1 · last: Auburn 33–24, 2025
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Auburn 33–24 | Razorback Stadium |
| 2024 | Arkansas 24–14 | Jordan-Hare Stadium |
| 2023 | Auburn 48–10 | Razorback Stadium |
| 2022 | Arkansas 41–27 | Jordan-Hare Stadium |
| 2021 | Auburn 38–23 | Razorback Stadium |