This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Nov 7, 5:00 PM CT · USA Network · Canvas Stadium (Fort Collins)
Our call: Boise State by 16.8 · 87% pregame win chance ✓ right
87%Our win chance13%
Our win chance: Boise State 87% · Colorado State 13% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: Boise State 64, Colorado State 38 · our call right
Final: Boise State 64, Colorado State 38
Closest: Sonny Moore (Boise State by 21.7, missed by 4.3). 10 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favored Boise State
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Moore Closest Boise State +79.0 vs Colorado State +53.3 | Boise State by 21.7 ✓ | Boise State 94% | 4.3 |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Boise State by 21.3 ✓ | Boise State 94% | 4.7 |
| ESPN FPI Boise State +11.1 vs Colorado State -12.4 | Boise State by 21.0 ✓ | Boise State 94% | 5.0 |
| Elo Boise State 1714 vs Colorado State 1152 | Boise State by 20.0 ✓ | Boise State 93% | 6.0 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Boise State by 18.5 ✓ | Boise State 91% | 7.5 |
| SRS Boise State +12.3 vs Colorado State -8.2 | Boise State by 18 ✓ | Boise State 90% | 8.0 |
| Sagarin Boise State +75.6 vs Colorado State +56.0 | Boise State by 16.9 ✓ | Boise State 89% | 9.1 |
| SP+ Boise State +10.9 vs Colorado State -8.4 · week 9 ratings | Boise State by 16.8 ✓ | Boise State 89% | 9.2 |
| Our model · experimental Boise State +6.1 vs Colorado State -9.9 | Boise State by 13.5 ✓ | Boise State 84% | 12.5 |
| Record Colorado State 3-5, Boise State 7-1 | Boise State (better record) ✓ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Boise State by 16.8 ✓ | Boise State 87% | 9.2 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All 10 models favored Boise State (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had Boise State by 16.8, Elo had Boise State by 20.0, Our model had Boise State by 13.5, ESPN FPI had Boise State by 21.0, SRS had Boise State by 18.0, Sagarin had Boise State by 16.9, Sonny Moore had Boise State by 21.7, The Margin had Boise State by 21.3, and Market had Boise State by 18.5. They were within 8.2 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Nov 7, 4:08 PM CT).
Last 5 meetings
Boise State leads 13–1 · last: Boise State 49–21, 2025
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boise State 49–21 | Albertsons Stadium |
| 2023 | Colorado State 31–30 | Canvas Stadium |
| 2022 | Boise State 49–10 | Albertsons Stadium |
| 2021 | Boise State 28–19 | Canvas Stadium |
| 2020 | Boise State 52–21 | Albertsons Stadium |