This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM CT · ABC · Rice-Eccles Stadium (Salt Lake City)
Our call: Utah by 5.9 · 66% pregame win chance ✓ right
34%Our win chance66%
Our win chance: Utah 66% · BYU 34% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: Utah 28, BYU 20 · our call right
Final: Utah 28, BYU 20
Closest: The Margin (Utah by 8.7, missed by 0.7). 10 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favored Utah
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Moore BYU +79.9 vs Utah +92.9 | Utah by 17.0 ✓ | Utah 89% | 9.0 |
| Elo BYU 1705 vs Utah 1919 | Utah by 11.1 ✓ | Utah 79% | 3.1 |
| SRS BYU +14.1 vs Utah +21.5 | Utah by 9.9 ✓ | Utah 76% | 1.9 |
| The Margin Closest The Margin's model | Utah by 8.7 ✓ | Utah 73% | 0.7 |
| ESPN FPI BYU +15.0 vs Utah +18.4 | Utah by 5.9 ✓ | Utah 67% | 2.1 |
| Sagarin BYU +81.9 vs Utah +85.0 | Utah by 5.9 ✓ | Utah 66% | 2.1 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Utah by 4.5 ✓ | Utah 63% | 3.5 |
| SP+ BYU +16.7 vs Utah +18.0 · week 9 ratings | Utah by 3.8 ✓ | Utah 61% | 4.2 |
| Our model · experimental BYU +16.2 vs Utah +16.6 | Utah by 2.9 ✓ | Utah 58% | 5.1 |
| Record Utah 8-0, BYU 7-1 | Utah (better record) ✓ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Utah by 5.9 ✓ | Utah 66% | 2.1 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All 10 models favored Utah (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had Utah by 3.8, Elo had Utah by 11.1, Our model had Utah by 2.9, ESPN FPI had Utah by 5.9, SRS had Utah by 9.9, Sagarin had Utah by 5.9, Sonny Moore had Utah by 17.0, The Margin had Utah by 8.7, and Market had Utah by 4.5. They were within 14.1 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Nov 7, 9:32 AM CT).
Last 5 meetings
Utah leads 59–34–4 · last: BYU 24–21, 2025 · BYU has won 3 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | BYU 24–21 | LaVell Edwards Stadium |
| 2024 | BYU 22–21 | Rice-Eccles Stadium |
| 2021 | BYU 26–17 | LaVell Edwards Stadium |
| 2019 | Utah 30–12 | LaVell Edwards Stadium |
| 2018 | Utah 35–27 | Rice-Eccles Stadium |