This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Nov 7, 5:15 PM CT · ESPN · Neyland Stadium (Knoxville)
Our call: Tennessee by 10.0 · 74% pregame win chance ✓ right
26%Our win chance74%
Our win chance: Tennessee 74% · Kentucky 26% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: Tennessee 34, Kentucky 6 · our call right
Final: Tennessee 34, Kentucky 6
Closest: Elo (Tennessee by 10.3, missed by 17.7). 9 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
9 of 10 models favored Tennessee
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo Closest Kentucky 1634 vs Tennessee 1829 | Tennessee by 10.3 ✓ | Tennessee 77% | 17.7 |
| Our model · experimental Kentucky +8.1 vs Tennessee +15.5 | Tennessee by 10 ✓ | Tennessee 76% | 18.0 |
| SP+ Kentucky +10.6 vs Tennessee +17.9 · week 9 ratings | Tennessee by 9.8 ✓ | Tennessee 76% | 18.2 |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Tennessee by 7.9 ✓ | Tennessee 72% | 20.1 |
| ESPN FPI Kentucky +13.0 vs Tennessee +16.7 | Tennessee by 6.2 ✓ | Tennessee 67% | 21.8 |
| Sagarin Kentucky +83.2 vs Tennessee +86.3 | Tennessee by 5.9 ✓ | Tennessee 66% | 22.1 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Tennessee by 5.5 ✓ | Tennessee 65% | 22.5 |
| Sonny Moore Kentucky +87.9 vs Tennessee +89.2 | Tennessee by 5.3 ✓ | Tennessee 65% | 22.7 |
| SRS Kentucky +15.0 vs Tennessee +16.6 | Tennessee by 4.1 ✓ | Tennessee 62% | 23.9 |
| Record Tennessee 6-2, Kentucky 7-1 | Kentucky (better record) ✗ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Tennessee by 10.0 ✓ | Tennessee 74% | 18.0 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
SP+, Elo, Our model, ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin, Sonny Moore, The Margin and Market favored Tennessee; Record favored Kentucky (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had Tennessee by 9.8, Elo had Tennessee by 10.3, Our model had Tennessee by 10.0, ESPN FPI had Tennessee by 6.2, SRS had Tennessee by 4.1, Sagarin had Tennessee by 5.9, Sonny Moore had Tennessee by 5.3, The Margin had Tennessee by 7.9, and Market had Tennessee by 5.5. They were within 6.2 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Nov 7, 5:07 PM CT).
Last 5 meetings
Tennessee leads 84–25–9 · last: Tennessee 56–34, 2025 · Tennessee has won 5 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Tennessee 56–34 | Kroger Field |
| 2024 | Tennessee 28–18 | Neyland Stadium |
| 2023 | Tennessee 33–27 | Kroger Field |
| 2022 | Tennessee 44–6 | Neyland Stadium |
| 2021 | Tennessee 45–42 | Kroger Field |