This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Nov 7, 6:30 PM CT · Peacock · Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor)
Our call: Michigan by 15.3 · 84% pregame win chance ✗ wrong
16%Our win chance84%
Our win chance: Michigan 84% · Michigan State 16% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: Michigan State 15, Michigan 6 · our call wrong
Final: Michigan State 15, Michigan 6
Closest: SRS (Michigan by 6.2, missed by 15.2). 0 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favored Michigan
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ Michigan State -3.0 vs Michigan +11.5 · week 9 ratings | Michigan by 17 ✗ | Michigan 89% | 26.0 |
| Our model · experimental Michigan State -1.0 vs Michigan +12.0 | Michigan by 15.5 ✗ | Michigan 87% | 24.5 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Michigan by 14 ✗ | Michigan 84% | 23.0 |
| Elo Michigan State 1444 vs Michigan 1720 | Michigan by 13.5 ✗ | Michigan 84% | 22.5 |
| ESPN FPI Michigan State +0.8 vs Michigan +10.7 | Michigan by 12.5 ✗ | Michigan 82% | 21.5 |
| Sagarin Michigan State +72.7 vs Michigan +81.6 | Michigan by 11.6 ✗ | Michigan 80% | 20.6 |
| Sonny Moore Michigan State +72.4 vs Michigan +78.4 | Michigan by 10.0 ✗ | Michigan 76% | 19.0 |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Michigan by 9.3 ✗ | Michigan 75% | 18.3 |
| SRS Closest Michigan State +1.3 vs Michigan +5.0 | Michigan by 6.2 ✗ | Michigan 67% | 15.2 |
| Record Michigan 5-3, Michigan State 2-6 | Michigan (better record) ✗ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Michigan by 15.3 ✗ | Michigan 84% | 24.3 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All 10 models favored Michigan (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had Michigan by 17.0, Elo had Michigan by 13.5, Our model had Michigan by 15.5, ESPN FPI had Michigan by 12.5, SRS had Michigan by 6.2, Sagarin had Michigan by 11.6, Sonny Moore had Michigan by 10.0, The Margin had Michigan by 9.3, and Market had Michigan by 14.0. They were within 10.8 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Nov 7, 6:04 PM CT).
Last 5 meetings
Michigan leads 75–38–5 · last: Michigan 31–20, 2025 · Michigan has won 4 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan 31–20 | Spartan Stadium |
| 2024 | Michigan 24–17 | Michigan Stadium |
| 2023 | Michigan 49–0 | Spartan Stadium |
| 2022 | Michigan 29–7 | Michigan Stadium |
| 2021 | Michigan State 37–33 | Spartan Stadium |