This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Fri Nov 6, 8:00 PM CT · CBSSN · Mackay Stadium (Reno)
Our call: New Mexico by 9.3 · 73% pregame win chance ✓ right
73%Our win chance27%
Our win chance: New Mexico 73% · Nevada 27% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: New Mexico 31, Nevada 3 · our call right
Final: New Mexico 31, Nevada 3
Closest: The Margin (New Mexico by 13.4, missed by 14.6). 10 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favored New Mexico
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Margin Closest The Margin's model | New Mexico by 13.4 ✓ | New Mexico 83% | 14.6 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | New Mexico by 12.5 ✓ | New Mexico 82% | 15.5 |
| ESPN FPI New Mexico +6.2 vs Nevada -8.2 | New Mexico by 11.9 ✓ | New Mexico 80% | 16.1 |
| SRS New Mexico +5.6 vs Nevada -7.2 | New Mexico by 10.3 ✓ | New Mexico 77% | 17.7 |
| Sagarin New Mexico +71.6 vs Nevada +58.7 | New Mexico by 10.1 ✓ | New Mexico 77% | 17.9 |
| Our model · experimental New Mexico +0.1 vs Nevada -12.5 | New Mexico by 10 ✓ | New Mexico 76% | 18.0 |
| SP+ New Mexico +9.3 vs Nevada -3.1 · week 9 ratings | New Mexico by 9.9 ✓ | New Mexico 76% | 18.1 |
| Sonny Moore New Mexico +75.5 vs Nevada +63.2 | New Mexico by 8.3 ✓ | New Mexico 73% | 19.7 |
| Elo New Mexico 1667 vs Nevada 1408 | New Mexico by 7.9 ✓ | New Mexico 71% | 20.1 |
| Record Nevada 3-5, New Mexico 7-1 | New Mexico (better record) ✓ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | New Mexico by 9.3 ✓ | New Mexico 73% | 18.7 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All 10 models favored New Mexico (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had New Mexico by 9.9, Elo had New Mexico by 7.9, Our model had New Mexico by 10.0, ESPN FPI had New Mexico by 11.9, SRS had New Mexico by 10.3, Sagarin had New Mexico by 10.1, Sonny Moore had New Mexico by 8.3, The Margin had New Mexico by 13.4, and Market had New Mexico by 12.5. They were within 5.5 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Thu Nov 5, 11:30 PM CT).