This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Nov 7, 6:45 PM CT · SEC Network · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville)
Our call: Florida by 2.4 · 55% pregame win chance ✗ wrong
45%Our win chance55%
Our win chance: Florida 55% · Oklahoma 45% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: Oklahoma 23, Florida 7 · our call wrong
Final: Oklahoma 23, Florida 7
Closest: Elo (Florida by 0.6, missed by 16.6). 0 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favored Florida
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Moore Oklahoma +81.5 vs Florida +87.3 | Florida by 9.8 ✗ | Florida 76% | 25.8 |
| SRS Oklahoma +6.4 vs Florida +13.4 | Florida by 9.5 ✗ | Florida 75% | 25.5 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Florida by 5.5 ✗ | Florida 65% | 21.5 |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Florida by 4.7 ✗ | Florida 63% | 20.7 |
| Sagarin Oklahoma +83.3 vs Florida +84.9 | Florida by 4.3 ✗ | Florida 62% | 20.3 |
| ESPN FPI Oklahoma +12.1 vs Florida +13.9 | Florida by 4.3 ✗ | Florida 62% | 20.3 |
| Our model · experimental Oklahoma +12.8 vs Florida +14.2 | Florida by 3.9 ✗ | Florida 61% | 19.9 |
| SP+ Oklahoma +10.3 vs Florida +10.6 · week 9 ratings | Florida by 2.8 ✗ | Florida 58% | 18.8 |
| Elo Closest Oklahoma 1676 vs Florida 1629 | Florida by 0.6 ✗ | Florida 52% | 16.6 |
| Record Florida 5-3, Oklahoma 4-4 | Florida (better record) ✗ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Florida by 2.4 ✗ | Florida 55% | 18.4 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All 10 models favored Florida (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had Florida by 2.8, Elo had Florida by 0.6, Our model had Florida by 3.9, ESPN FPI had Florida by 4.3, SRS had Florida by 9.5, Sagarin had Florida by 4.3, Sonny Moore had Florida by 9.8, The Margin had Florida by 4.7, and Market had Florida by 5.5. They were within 9.2 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Nov 7, 6:37 PM CT).
Last 2 meetings
tied 1–1 · last: Oklahoma 55–20, 2020
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Oklahoma 55–20 | neutral site |
| 2008 | Florida 24–14 | neutral site |