This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Nov 7, 12:00 PM CT · TNT | HBO Max · Bill Snyder Family Stadium (Manhattan)
Our call: Kansas State by 3.8 · 60% pregame win chance ✗ wrong
40%Our win chance60%
Our win chance: Kansas State 60% · Oklahoma State 40% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: Oklahoma State 66, Kansas State 28 · our call wrong
Final: Oklahoma State 66, Kansas State 28
Closest: SRS (Oklahoma State by 7.9, missed by 30.1). 8 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
8 of 10 models favored Oklahoma State
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| SRS Closest Oklahoma State +13.6 vs Kansas State +3.2 | Oklahoma State by 7.9 ✓ | Oklahoma State 72% | 30.1 |
| Elo Oklahoma State 1464 vs Kansas State 1595 | Kansas State by 7.7 ✗ | Kansas State 71% | 45.7 |
| Sonny Moore Oklahoma State +84.8 vs Kansas State +74.1 | Oklahoma State by 6.7 ✓ | Oklahoma State 69% | 31.3 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Oklahoma State by 6 ✓ | Oklahoma State 67% | 32.0 |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Oklahoma State by 5.4 ✓ | Oklahoma State 65% | 32.6 |
| Our model · experimental Oklahoma State +2.0 vs Kansas State +4.2 | Kansas State by 4.7 ✗ | Kansas State 63% | 42.7 |
| ESPN FPI Oklahoma State +10.5 vs Kansas State +4.7 | Oklahoma State by 3.3 ✓ | Oklahoma State 59% | 34.7 |
| Sagarin Oklahoma State +79.6 vs Kansas State +74.3 | Oklahoma State by 2.5 ✓ | Oklahoma State 57% | 35.5 |
| SP+ Oklahoma State +12.4 vs Kansas State +8.8 · week 9 ratings | Oklahoma State by 1.1 ✓ | Oklahoma State 53% | 36.9 |
| Record Kansas State 4-4, Oklahoma State 5-3 | Oklahoma State (better record) ✓ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Kansas State by 3.8 ✗ | Kansas State 60% | 41.8 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
SP+, ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin, Sonny Moore, The Margin, Record and Market favored Oklahoma State; Elo and Our model favored Kansas State (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had Oklahoma State by 1.1, Elo had Kansas State by 7.7, Our model had Kansas State by 4.7, ESPN FPI had Oklahoma State by 3.3, SRS had Oklahoma State by 7.9, Sagarin had Oklahoma State by 2.5, Sonny Moore had Oklahoma State by 6.7, The Margin had Oklahoma State by 5.4, and Market had Oklahoma State by 6.0. The furthest apart are 15.6 points from each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Nov 7, 10:37 AM CT).
Last 5 meetings
Oklahoma State leads 43–26 · last: Kansas State 14–6, 2025 · Kansas State has won 2 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Kansas State 14–6 | Boone Pickens Stadium |
| 2024 | Kansas State 42–20 | Bill Snyder Family Stadium |
| 2023 | Oklahoma State 29–21 | Boone Pickens Stadium |
| 2022 | Kansas State 48–0 | Bill Snyder Family Stadium |
| 2021 | Oklahoma State 31–20 | Boone Pickens Stadium |