This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Nov 7, 3:15 PM CT · BTN · Camp Randall Stadium (Madison)
Our call: Wisconsin by 13.6 · 81% pregame win chance ✓ right
19%Our win chance81%
Our win chance: Wisconsin 81% · Rutgers 19% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: Wisconsin 31, Rutgers 10 · our call right
Final: Wisconsin 31, Rutgers 10
Closest: Sonny Moore (Wisconsin by 21.0, missed by 0.0). 10 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favored Wisconsin
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Margin The Margin's model | Wisconsin by 21.2 ✓ | Wisconsin 94% | 0.2 |
| Sonny Moore Closest Rutgers +64.5 vs Wisconsin +81.5 | Wisconsin by 21.0 ✓ | Wisconsin 94% | 0.0 |
| SRS Rutgers -7.6 vs Wisconsin +8.1 | Wisconsin by 18.2 ✓ | Wisconsin 91% | 2.8 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Wisconsin by 16.5 ✓ | Wisconsin 88% | 4.5 |
| SP+ Rutgers -4.9 vs Wisconsin +8.7 · week 9 ratings | Wisconsin by 16.1 ✓ | Wisconsin 88% | 4.9 |
| Sagarin Rutgers +68.5 vs Wisconsin +81.3 | Wisconsin by 15.6 ✓ | Wisconsin 87% | 5.4 |
| ESPN FPI Rutgers -4.3 vs Wisconsin +8.5 | Wisconsin by 15.3 ✓ | Wisconsin 87% | 5.7 |
| Elo Rutgers 1368 vs Wisconsin 1645 | Wisconsin by 13.6 ✓ | Wisconsin 84% | 7.4 |
| Our model · experimental Rutgers -3.4 vs Wisconsin +5.3 | Wisconsin by 11.2 ✓ | Wisconsin 79% | 9.8 |
| Record Wisconsin 5-3, Rutgers 2-6 | Wisconsin (better record) ✓ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Wisconsin by 13.6 ✓ | Wisconsin 81% | 7.4 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All 10 models favored Wisconsin (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had Wisconsin by 16.1, Elo had Wisconsin by 13.6, Our model had Wisconsin by 11.2, ESPN FPI had Wisconsin by 15.3, SRS had Wisconsin by 18.2, Sagarin had Wisconsin by 15.6, Sonny Moore had Wisconsin by 21.0, The Margin had Wisconsin by 21.2, and Market had Wisconsin by 16.5. They were within 10.0 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Nov 7, 3:02 PM CT).
Last 5 meetings
Wisconsin leads 6–0 · last: Wisconsin 42–7, 2024 · Wisconsin has won 6 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wisconsin 42–7 | SHI Stadium |
| 2023 | Wisconsin 24–13 | Camp Randall Stadium |
| 2021 | Wisconsin 52–3 | SHI Stadium |
| 2018 | Wisconsin 31–17 | Camp Randall Stadium |
| 2015 | Wisconsin 48–10 | Camp Randall Stadium |