This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Fri Nov 6, 9:15 PM CT · ESPN · Casino Del Sol Stadium (Tucson)
Our call: Arizona by 8.4 · 71% pregame win chance ✓ right
29%Our win chance71%
Our win chance: Arizona 71% · TCU 29% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: Arizona 29, TCU 28 · our call right
Final: Arizona 29, TCU 28
Closest: Sonny Moore (Arizona by 4.6, missed by 3.6). 10 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favored Arizona
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo TCU 1608 vs Arizona 1800 | Arizona by 10.2 ✓ | Arizona 77% | 9.2 |
| SP+ TCU +8.6 vs Arizona +16.0 · week 9 ratings | Arizona by 9.9 ✓ | Arizona 76% | 8.9 |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Arizona by 9.8 ✓ | Arizona 76% | 8.8 |
| SRS TCU +7.1 vs Arizona +14.3 | Arizona by 9.7 ✓ | Arizona 76% | 8.7 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Arizona by 8.5 ✓ | Arizona 73% | 7.5 |
| ESPN FPI TCU +7.3 vs Arizona +13.0 | Arizona by 8.2 ✓ | Arizona 72% | 7.2 |
| Sagarin TCU +76.5 vs Arizona +81.0 | Arizona by 7.2 ✓ | Arizona 70% | 6.2 |
| Our model · experimental TCU +7.7 vs Arizona +10.1 | Arizona by 5 ✓ | Arizona 64% | 4.0 |
| Sonny Moore Closest TCU +82.1 vs Arizona +82.7 | Arizona by 4.6 ✓ | Arizona 63% | 3.6 |
| Record Arizona 6-2, TCU 4-4 | Arizona (better record) ✓ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Arizona by 8.4 ✓ | Arizona 71% | 7.4 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All 10 models favored Arizona (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had Arizona by 9.9, Elo had Arizona by 10.2, Our model had Arizona by 5.0, ESPN FPI had Arizona by 8.2, SRS had Arizona by 9.7, Sagarin had Arizona by 7.2, Sonny Moore had Arizona by 4.6, The Margin had Arizona by 9.8, and Market had Arizona by 8.5. They were within 5.6 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Fri Nov 6, 7:53 PM CT).
Last 3 meetings
TCU leads 2–1 · last: TCU 49–28, 2024 · TCU has won 2 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | TCU 49–28 | Amon G. Carter Stadium |
| 2003 | TCU 13–10 | Arizona Stadium |
| 1999 | Arizona 35–31 | — |