This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM CT · Fox · Huntington Bank Stadium (Minneapolis)
Our call: UCLA by 7.6 · 70% pregame win chance ✓ right
70%Our win chance30%
Our win chance: UCLA 70% · Minnesota 30% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: UCLA 34, Minnesota 20 · our call right
Final: UCLA 34, Minnesota 20
Closest: The Margin (UCLA by 13.2, missed by 0.8). 10 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favored UCLA
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Margin Closest The Margin's model | UCLA by 13.2 ✓ | UCLA 83% | 0.8 |
| SRS UCLA +16.1 vs Minnesota +3.4 | UCLA by 10.2 ✓ | UCLA 77% | 3.8 |
| Elo UCLA 1749 vs Minnesota 1456 | UCLA by 9.2 ✓ | UCLA 75% | 4.8 |
| Sonny Moore UCLA +92.0 vs Minnesota +79.5 | UCLA by 8.4 ✓ | UCLA 73% | 5.6 |
| SP+ UCLA +14.4 vs Minnesota +3.9 · week 9 ratings | UCLA by 8 ✓ | UCLA 72% | 6.0 |
| ESPN FPI UCLA +12.2 vs Minnesota +2.7 | UCLA by 7.0 ✓ | UCLA 69% | 7.0 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | UCLA by 6 ✓ | UCLA 67% | 8.0 |
| Our model · experimental UCLA +11.2 vs Minnesota +3.0 | UCLA by 5.7 ✓ | UCLA 66% | 8.3 |
| Sagarin UCLA +84.1 vs Minnesota +77.6 | UCLA by 3.8 ✓ | UCLA 61% | 10.2 |
| Record Minnesota 5-3, UCLA 8-0 | UCLA (better record) ✓ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | UCLA by 7.6 ✓ | UCLA 70% | 6.4 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All 10 models favored UCLA (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had UCLA by 8.0, Elo had UCLA by 9.2, Our model had UCLA by 5.7, ESPN FPI had UCLA by 7.0, SRS had UCLA by 10.2, Sagarin had UCLA by 3.8, Sonny Moore had UCLA by 8.4, The Margin had UCLA by 13.2, and Market had UCLA by 6.0. They were within 9.4 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Nov 7, 9:07 AM CT).
Last 4 meetings
Minnesota leads 3–1 · last: Minnesota 21–17, 2024
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Minnesota 21–17 | Rose Bowl |
| 1978 | UCLA 17–3 | — |
| 1977 | Minnesota 27–13 | — |
| 1961 | Minnesota 21–3 | neutral site |