This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Nov 7, 3:15 PM CT · SEC Network · Davis Wade Stadium (Starkville)
Our call: Mississippi State by 6.4 · 66% pregame win chance ✗ wrong
34%Our win chance66%
Our win chance: Mississippi State 66% · Vanderbilt 34% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: Vanderbilt 25, Mississippi State 23 · our call wrong
Final: Vanderbilt 25, Mississippi State 23
Closest: Elo (Mississippi State by 1.7, missed by 3.7). 0 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was wrong.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favored Mississippi State
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Moore Vanderbilt +70.7 vs Mississippi State +81.3 | Mississippi State by 14.6 ✗ | Mississippi State 85% | 16.6 |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Mississippi State by 14.1 ✗ | Mississippi State 85% | 16.1 |
| SRS Vanderbilt -2.7 vs Mississippi State +7.5 | Mississippi State by 12.7 ✗ | Mississippi State 82% | 14.7 |
| ESPN FPI Vanderbilt +0.3 vs Mississippi State +7.8 | Mississippi State by 10.0 ✗ | Mississippi State 76% | 12.0 |
| SP+ Vanderbilt -1.4 vs Mississippi State +6.0 · week 9 ratings | Mississippi State by 9.9 ✗ | Mississippi State 76% | 11.9 |
| Sagarin Vanderbilt +72.3 vs Mississippi State +78.9 | Mississippi State by 9.3 ✗ | Mississippi State 75% | 11.3 |
| Our model · experimental Vanderbilt +2.9 vs Mississippi State +7.9 | Mississippi State by 7.5 ✗ | Mississippi State 71% | 9.5 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Mississippi State by 2.5 ✗ | Mississippi State 57% | 4.5 |
| Elo Closest Vanderbilt 1542 vs Mississippi State 1521 | Mississippi State by 1.7 ✗ | Mississippi State 55% | 3.7 |
| Record Mississippi State 4-4, Vanderbilt 3-5 | Mississippi State (better record) ✗ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Mississippi State by 6.4 ✗ | Mississippi State 66% | 8.4 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All 10 models favored Mississippi State (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had Mississippi State by 9.9, Elo had Mississippi State by 1.7, Our model had Mississippi State by 7.5, ESPN FPI had Mississippi State by 10.0, SRS had Mississippi State by 12.7, Sagarin had Mississippi State by 9.3, Sonny Moore had Mississippi State by 14.6, The Margin had Mississippi State by 14.1, and Market had Mississippi State by 2.5. They were within 12.9 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Nov 7, 3:02 PM CT).
Last 5 meetings
Mississippi State leads 15–7–2 · last: Mississippi State 45–6, 2021 · Mississippi State has won 5 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Mississippi State 45–6 | FirstBank Stadium |
| 2020 | Mississippi State 24–17 | Davis Wade Stadium |
| 2014 | Mississippi State 51–0 | Davis Wade Stadium |
| 2009 | Mississippi State 15–3 | FirstBank Stadium |
| 2008 | Mississippi State 17–14 | Davis Wade Stadium |