This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Fri Nov 6, 6:00 PM CT · ESPN · Gerald J. Ford Stadium (University Park)
Our call: SMU by 8.4 · 70% pregame win chance ✓ right
30%Our win chance70%
Our win chance: SMU 70% · Virginia Tech 30% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: SMU 51, Virginia Tech 28 · our call right
Final: SMU 51, Virginia Tech 28
Closest: Elo (SMU by 11.9, missed by 11.1). 10 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favored SMU
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo Closest Virginia Tech 1516 vs SMU 1752 | SMU by 11.9 ✓ | SMU 81% | 11.1 |
| SRS Virginia Tech +1.5 vs SMU +6.0 | SMU by 7 ✓ | SMU 69% | 16.0 |
| ESPN FPI Virginia Tech +6.1 vs SMU +10.5 | SMU by 6.9 ✓ | SMU 69% | 16.1 |
| SP+ Virginia Tech +9.0 vs SMU +13.4 · week 9 ratings | SMU by 6.9 ✓ | SMU 69% | 16.1 |
| Sagarin Virginia Tech +75.3 vs SMU +79.3 | SMU by 6.7 ✓ | SMU 69% | 16.3 |
| Our model · experimental Virginia Tech +5.2 vs SMU +9.2 | SMU by 6.5 ✓ | SMU 68% | 16.5 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | SMU by 6.5 ✓ | SMU 68% | 16.5 |
| The Margin The Margin's model | SMU by 5.8 ✓ | SMU 66% | 17.2 |
| Sonny Moore Virginia Tech +80.5 vs SMU +79.2 | SMU by 2.7 ✓ | SMU 58% | 20.3 |
| Record SMU 6-2, Virginia Tech 6-2 | SMU (better record) ✓ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | SMU by 8.4 ✓ | SMU 70% | 14.6 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All 10 models favored SMU (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had SMU by 6.9, Elo had SMU by 11.9, Our model had SMU by 6.5, ESPN FPI had SMU by 6.9, SRS had SMU by 7.0, Sagarin had SMU by 6.7, Sonny Moore had SMU by 2.7, The Margin had SMU by 5.8, and Market had SMU by 6.5. They were within 9.2 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Fri Nov 6, 4:08 PM CT).
Last 3 meetings
SMU leads 2–1 · last: SMU 28–25, 1974 · SMU has won 2 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 1974 | SMU 28–25 | — |
| 1973 | SMU 37–6 | — |
| 1972 | Virginia Tech 13–10 | — |