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Sat Nov 14, Time TBA · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Our call: BYU by 5.9 · 65% pregame win chance
35%Our win chance65%
Our win chance: BYU 65% · Baylor 35% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
9 of 10 models favor BYU
| Model | Says | Win chance | Use this |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model · experimental Baylor +9.9 vs BYU +16.6 | BYU by 9.3 | BYU 75% | Use this |
| Market the market's pregame margin | BYU by 6.5 | BYU 68% | Use this |
| ESPN FPI Baylor +11.4 vs BYU +14.8 | BYU by 5.9 | BYU 66% | Use this |
| SP+ Baylor +13.3 vs BYU +16.2 | BYU by 5.4 | BYU 65% | Use this |
| SRS Baylor +11.8 vs BYU +14.5 | BYU by 5.2 | BYU 65% | Use this |
| Sagarin Baylor +80.1 vs BYU +81.9 | BYU by 4.5 | BYU 63% | Use this |
| Elo Baylor 1697 vs BYU 1706 | BYU by 2.9 | BYU 58% | Use this |
| The Margin The Margin's model | BYU by 2.4 | BYU 57% | Use this |
| Sonny Moore Baylor +85.2 vs BYU +79.9 | Baylor by 1.2 | Baylor 54% | Use this |
| Record BYU 7-2, Baylor 6-3 | BYU (better record) | – | Use this |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | BYU by 5.9 | BYU 65% | Use this |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · BYU 9 games, Baylor 9 games
Edge: Baylor wins 3 of 5
Baylor stops plays better, is more disruptive and has the edge on big plays. BYU moves the ball better and allows fewer big plays.
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45%✓ Moves the ballsuccessful plays 39%
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39% Stops playssuccessful plays allowed ✓36%
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19% Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers ✓21%
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1.27 Big playson offense ✓1.42
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1.18✓ Big plays allowedon defense 1.22
Run game, head to head · season to date
BYU's runs work 46% of the time; Baylor's run defense allows 34%. Baylor's runs work 41% of the time; BYU's run defense allows 42%.
More numbers
| Measure | BYU | Baylor | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 44.5% | 39.1% | BYU |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.27 | 1.42 | Baylor |
| Def. success rate allowed | 38.8% | 36.0% | Baylor |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.18 | 1.22 | BYU |
| Havoc created | 19.4% | 20.7% | Baylor |
- Run game, success rate: BYU offense 45.7% · Baylor defense allows 34.1% · edge: Baylor
- Run game, success rate: Baylor offense 40.9% · BYU defense allows 42.1% · edge: even
- Run game, PPA per play: BYU offense +0.19 · Baylor defense allows -0.07 · edge: even
- Run game, PPA per play: Baylor offense +0.03 · BYU defense allows +0.00 · edge: BYU
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 42%, PPA per play +0.07, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
SP+, Elo, Our model, ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin, The Margin, Record and Market favor BYU; Sonny Moore favors Baylor.
SP+ has BYU by 5.4, Elo has BYU by 2.9, Our model has BYU by 9.3, ESPN FPI has BYU by 5.9, SRS has BYU by 5.2, Sagarin has BYU by 4.5, Sonny Moore has Baylor by 1.2, The Margin has BYU by 2.4, and Market has BYU by 6.5. The furthest apart are 10.5 points from each other.
Last 5 meetings
BYU leads 3–2 · last: BYU 34–28, 2024 · BYU has won 2 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | BYU 34–28 | McLane Stadium |
| 2022 | BYU 26–20 | LaVell Edwards Stadium |
| 2021 | Baylor 38–24 | McLane Stadium |
| 1984 | BYU 47–13 | — |
| 1983 | Baylor 40–36 | — |