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Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM CT · Fox · Rose Bowl
Our call: UCLA by 11.6 · 78% pregame win chance
22%Our win chance78%
Our win chance: UCLA 78% · Illinois 22% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favor UCLA
| Model | Says | Win chance | Use this |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Moore Illinois +81.1 vs UCLA +92.5 | UCLA by 15.5 | UCLA 87% | Use this |
| SP+ Illinois +8.0 vs UCLA +20.2 | UCLA by 14.7 | UCLA 86% | Use this |
| The Margin The Margin's model | UCLA by 13.6 | UCLA 84% | Use this |
| SRS Illinois +6.9 vs UCLA +16.6 | UCLA by 12.2 | UCLA 81% | Use this |
| Our model · experimental Illinois +2.6 vs UCLA +11.6 | UCLA by 11.4 | UCLA 79% | Use this |
| Market the market's pregame margin | UCLA by 9.5 | UCLA 75% | Use this |
| Elo Illinois 1602 vs UCLA 1754 | UCLA by 8.6 | UCLA 73% | Use this |
| Sagarin Illinois +80.0 vs UCLA +84.8 | UCLA by 7.5 | UCLA 71% | Use this |
| ESPN FPI Illinois +7.7 vs UCLA +12.6 | UCLA by 7.4 | UCLA 70% | Use this |
| Record UCLA 9-0, Illinois 6-3 | UCLA (better record) | – | Use this |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | UCLA by 11.6 | UCLA 78% | Use this |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · UCLA 9 games, Illinois 9 games
Edge: UCLA wins 3 of 5
UCLA stops plays better, is more disruptive and allows fewer big plays. Illinois moves the ball better and has the edge on big plays.
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46% Moves the ballsuccessful plays ✓47%
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32%✓ Stops playssuccessful plays allowed 45%
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21%✓ Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers 13%
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1.15 Big playson offense ✓1.33
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1.23✓ Big plays allowedon defense 1.24
Run game, head to head · season to date
UCLA's runs work 51% of the time; Illinois's run defense allows 43%. Illinois's runs work 43% of the time; UCLA's run defense allows 34%.
More numbers
| Measure | UCLA | Illinois | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 46.0% | 46.6% | Illinois |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.15 | 1.33 | Illinois |
| Def. success rate allowed | 32.2% | 45.3% | UCLA |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.23 | 1.24 | UCLA |
| Havoc created | 20.8% | 13.2% | UCLA |
- Run game, success rate: UCLA offense 51.2% · Illinois defense allows 43.1% · edge: UCLA
- Run game, success rate: Illinois offense 42.6% · UCLA defense allows 34.0% · edge: UCLA
- Run game, PPA per play: UCLA offense +0.16 · Illinois defense allows +0.15 · edge: UCLA
- Run game, PPA per play: Illinois offense +0.11 · UCLA defense allows -0.19 · edge: UCLA
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 42%, PPA per play +0.07, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
All 10 models favor UCLA.
SP+ has UCLA by 14.7, Elo has UCLA by 8.6, Our model has UCLA by 11.4, ESPN FPI has UCLA by 7.4, SRS has UCLA by 12.2, Sagarin has UCLA by 7.5, Sonny Moore has UCLA by 15.5, The Margin has UCLA by 13.6, and Market has UCLA by 9.5. They are within 8.1 points of each other.
Last 5 meetings
tied 6–6 · last: Illinois 20–14, 2011
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Illinois 20–14 | neutral site |
| 2004 | UCLA 35–17 | Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) |
| 2003 | UCLA 6–3 | Rose Bowl |
| 1991 | UCLA 6–3 | neutral site |
| 1983 | UCLA 45–9 | neutral site |