Louisville at North Carolina

• Run game, success rate: North Carolina offense 43.7% · Louisville defense allows 42.3% · edge: even
• Run game, success rate: Louisville offense 51.9% · North Carolina defense allows 46.6% · edge: Louisville
• Run game, PPA per play: North Carolina offense +0.05 · Louisville defense allows -0.03 · edge: Louisville
• Run game, PPA per play: Louisville offense +0.28 · North Carolina defense allows +0.06 · edge: Louisville

• ⓘSuccess rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
• ⓘExplosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
• ⓘHavoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
• ⓘPPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.

How to read this

• Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
• The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 42%, PPA per play +0.07, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
• In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
• Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
• "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
• These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
• Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›