·
Sat Nov 14, Time TBA · ABC · Sanford Stadium
Our call: Georgia by 17.1 · 87% pregame win chance
13%Our win chance87%
Our win chance: Georgia 87% · Missouri 13% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favor Georgia
| Model | Says | Win chance | Use this |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Moore Missouri +86.5 vs Georgia +103.6 | Georgia by 21.0 | Georgia 94% | Use this |
| SP+ Missouri +13.7 vs Georgia +31.3 | Georgia by 20.1 | Georgia 93% | Use this |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Georgia by 17.8 | Georgia 90% | Use this |
| Elo Missouri 1767 vs Georgia 2130 | Georgia by 17.0 | Georgia 89% | Use this |
| ESPN FPI Missouri +12.9 vs Georgia +27.2 | Georgia by 16.8 | Georgia 89% | Use this |
| Our model · experimental Missouri +12.4 vs Georgia +24.2 | Georgia by 14.3 | Georgia 85% | Use this |
| SRS Missouri +12.4 vs Georgia +24.1 | Georgia by 14.2 | Georgia 85% | Use this |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Georgia by 13.5 | Georgia 84% | Use this |
| Sagarin Missouri +83.5 vs Georgia +93.9 | Georgia by 13.0 | Georgia 83% | Use this |
| Record Georgia 8-1, Missouri 6-3 | Georgia (better record) | – | Use this |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Georgia by 17.1 | Georgia 87% | Use this |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · Georgia 9 games, Missouri 9 games
Edge: Georgia wins 3 of 5
Georgia moves the ball better, stops plays better and allows fewer big plays. Missouri is more disruptive and has the edge on big plays.
-
52%✓ Moves the ballsuccessful plays 41%
-
35%✓ Stops playssuccessful plays allowed 36%
-
19% Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers ✓20%
-
1.15 Big playson offense ✓1.28
-
1.25✓ Big plays allowedon defense 1.33
Run game, head to head · season to date
Georgia's runs work 54% of the time; Missouri's run defense allows 38%. Missouri's runs work 38% of the time; Georgia's run defense allows 34%.
More numbers
| Measure | Georgia | Missouri | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 52.1% | 40.7% | Georgia |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.15 | 1.28 | Missouri |
| Def. success rate allowed | 35.3% | 36.2% | Georgia |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.25 | 1.33 | Georgia |
| Havoc created | 18.8% | 19.7% | Missouri |
- Run game, success rate: Georgia offense 53.6% · Missouri defense allows 37.7% · edge: Georgia
- Run game, success rate: Missouri offense 37.8% · Georgia defense allows 34.0% · edge: Georgia
- Run game, PPA per play: Georgia offense +0.23 · Missouri defense allows -0.07 · edge: even
- Run game, PPA per play: Missouri offense +0.05 · Georgia defense allows -0.16 · edge: Georgia
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 42%, PPA per play +0.07, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
All 10 models favor Georgia.
SP+ has Georgia by 20.1, Elo has Georgia by 17.0, Our model has Georgia by 14.3, ESPN FPI has Georgia by 16.8, SRS has Georgia by 14.2, Sagarin has Georgia by 13.0, Sonny Moore has Georgia by 21.0, The Margin has Georgia by 17.8, and Market has Georgia by 13.5. They are within 8.0 points of each other.
Last 5 meetings
Georgia leads 12–1 · last: Georgia 30–21, 2023 · Georgia has won 10 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Georgia 30–21 | Sanford Stadium |
| 2022 | Georgia 26–22 | Memorial Stadium |
| 2021 | Georgia 43–6 | Sanford Stadium |
| 2020 | Georgia 49–14 | Memorial Stadium |
| 2019 | Georgia 27–0 | Sanford Stadium |