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Sat Nov 14, 6:30 PM CT · CW · University Stadium (NM)
Our call: New Mexico by 14.6 · 83% pregame win chance
17%Our win chance83%
Our win chance: New Mexico 83% · UNLV 17% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favor New Mexico
| Model | Says | Win chance | Use this |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Moore UNLV +60.9 vs New Mexico +79.7 | New Mexico by 22.8 | New Mexico 95% | Use this |
| SP+ UNLV -3.7 vs New Mexico +14.4 | New Mexico by 20.6 | New Mexico 93% | Use this |
| SRS UNLV -7.1 vs New Mexico +7.9 | New Mexico by 17.5 | New Mexico 90% | Use this |
| The Margin The Margin's model | New Mexico by 15.5 | New Mexico 87% | Use this |
| Sagarin UNLV +60.7 vs New Mexico +73.0 | New Mexico by 14.9 | New Mexico 86% | Use this |
| Market the market's pregame margin | New Mexico by 13.5 | New Mexico 84% | Use this |
| ESPN FPI UNLV -3.2 vs New Mexico +7.8 | New Mexico by 13.5 | New Mexico 83% | Use this |
| Elo UNLV 1457 vs New Mexico 1713 | New Mexico by 12.7 | New Mexico 82% | Use this |
| Our model · experimental UNLV -6.2 vs New Mexico +1.9 | New Mexico by 10.6 | New Mexico 78% | Use this |
| Record New Mexico 8-1, UNLV 5-4 | New Mexico (better record) | – | Use this |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | New Mexico by 14.6 | New Mexico 83% | Use this |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · New Mexico 9 games, UNLV 9 games
Edge: New Mexico wins 3 of 5
New Mexico moves the ball better, stops plays better and is more disruptive. UNLV has the edge on big plays and allows fewer big plays.
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43%✓ Moves the ballsuccessful plays 39%
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29%✓ Stops playssuccessful plays allowed 43%
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26%✓ Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers 14%
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1.26 Big playson offense ✓1.30
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1.38 Big plays allowedon defense ✓1.22
Run game, head to head · season to date
New Mexico's runs work 44% of the time; UNLV's run defense allows 51%. UNLV's runs work 39% of the time; New Mexico's run defense allows 24%.
More numbers
| Measure | New Mexico | UNLV | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 42.9% | 39.0% | New Mexico |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.26 | 1.30 | UNLV |
| Def. success rate allowed | 28.5% | 42.7% | New Mexico |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.38 | 1.22 | UNLV |
| Havoc created | 25.7% | 14.0% | New Mexico |
- Run game, success rate: New Mexico offense 43.8% · UNLV defense allows 50.8% · edge: New Mexico
- Run game, success rate: UNLV offense 39.4% · New Mexico defense allows 24.4% · edge: New Mexico
- Run game, PPA per play: New Mexico offense +0.17 · UNLV defense allows +0.19 · edge: New Mexico
- Run game, PPA per play: UNLV offense +0.08 · New Mexico defense allows -0.23 · edge: New Mexico
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 42%, PPA per play +0.07, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
All 10 models favor New Mexico.
SP+ has New Mexico by 20.6, Elo has New Mexico by 12.7, Our model has New Mexico by 10.6, ESPN FPI has New Mexico by 13.5, SRS has New Mexico by 17.5, Sagarin has New Mexico by 14.9, Sonny Moore has New Mexico by 22.8, The Margin has New Mexico by 15.5, and Market has New Mexico by 13.5. They are within 12.2 points of each other.
Last 5 meetings
UNLV leads 15–13 · last: New Mexico 40–35, 2025
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | New Mexico 40–35 | Allegiant Stadium |
| 2023 | UNLV 56–14 | University Stadium (NM) |
| 2022 | UNLV 31–20 | Allegiant Stadium |
| 2021 | UNLV 31–17 | University Stadium (NM) |
| 2018 | New Mexico 50–14 | Sam Boyd Stadium |