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Sat Nov 14, 2:30 PM CT · CBS · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Our call: Indiana by 9.5 · 73% pregame win chance
27%Our win chance73%
Our win chance: Indiana 73% · USC 27% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favor Indiana
| Model | Says | Win chance | Use this |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo USC 1802 vs Indiana 2054 | Indiana by 12.6 | Indiana 82% | Use this |
| SP+ USC +15.8 vs Indiana +23.5 | Indiana by 10.2 | Indiana 77% | Use this |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Indiana by 10 | Indiana 76% | Use this |
| Sonny Moore USC +86.2 vs Indiana +91.9 | Indiana by 9.7 | Indiana 76% | Use this |
| ESPN FPI USC +14.8 vs Indiana +21.4 | Indiana by 9.1 | Indiana 74% | Use this |
| SRS USC +10.1 vs Indiana +15.5 | Indiana by 7.9 | Indiana 72% | Use this |
| Sagarin USC +84.5 vs Indiana +89.3 | Indiana by 7.4 | Indiana 70% | Use this |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Indiana by 7.3 | Indiana 70% | Use this |
| Our model · experimental USC +15.8 vs Indiana +19.0 | Indiana by 5.7 | Indiana 66% | Use this |
| Record Indiana 8-1, USC 7-2 | Indiana (better record) | – | Use this |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Indiana by 9.5 | Indiana 73% | Use this |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · Indiana 9 games, USC 9 games
Edge: Indiana wins 3 of 5
Indiana stops plays better, is more disruptive and has the edge on big plays. USC moves the ball better and allows fewer big plays.
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44% Moves the ballsuccessful plays ✓50%
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33%✓ Stops playssuccessful plays allowed 41%
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20%✓ Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers 12%
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1.38✓ Big playson offense 1.21
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1.35 Big plays allowedon defense ✓1.26
Run game, head to head · season to date
Indiana's runs work 42% of the time; USC's run defense allows 42%. USC's runs work 45% of the time; Indiana's run defense allows 31%.
More numbers
| Measure | Indiana | USC | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 43.9% | 50.1% | USC |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.38 | 1.21 | Indiana |
| Def. success rate allowed | 33.1% | 40.9% | Indiana |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.35 | 1.26 | USC |
| Havoc created | 20.0% | 12.5% | Indiana |
- Run game, success rate: Indiana offense 41.8% · USC defense allows 41.5% · edge: even
- Run game, success rate: USC offense 45.0% · Indiana defense allows 31.3% · edge: Indiana
- Run game, PPA per play: Indiana offense +0.10 · USC defense allows +0.03 · edge: even
- Run game, PPA per play: USC offense +0.06 · Indiana defense allows -0.10 · edge: Indiana
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 42%, PPA per play +0.07, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
All 10 models favor Indiana.
SP+ has Indiana by 10.2, Elo has Indiana by 12.6, Our model has Indiana by 5.7, ESPN FPI has Indiana by 9.1, SRS has Indiana by 7.9, Sagarin has Indiana by 7.4, Sonny Moore has Indiana by 9.7, The Margin has Indiana by 7.3, and Market has Indiana by 10.0. They are within 6.9 points of each other.
Last 4 meetings
USC leads 4–0 · last: USC 28–7, 1982 · USC has won 4 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 1982 | USC 28–7 | — |
| 1981 | USC 21–0 | — |
| 1967 | USC 14–3 | neutral site |
| 1953 | USC 27–14 | — |