This is Week 4. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Sep 26, 2:30 PM CT · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Our call: New Mexico by 11.7 ✓ right
Final: New Mexico 42, New Mexico State 18
Closest: SP+ (New Mexico by 18, missed by 6.0). 4 of 4 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
4 of 4 models favored New Mexico
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ Closest New Mexico +4.8 vs New Mexico State -15.7 | New Mexico by 18 ✓ | New Mexico 90% | 6.0 |
| Elo New Mexico 1559 vs New Mexico State 1261 | New Mexico by 9.4 ✓ | New Mexico 75% | 14.6 |
| Our model · experimental New Mexico -4.2 vs New Mexico State -14.6 | New Mexico by 7.8 ✓ | New Mexico 71% | 16.2 |
| Record New Mexico State 1-2, New Mexico 2-1 | New Mexico (better record) ✓ | – | – |
| Market no market margin | n/a | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | New Mexico by 11.7 ✓ | – | 12.3 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All four models favored New Mexico.
SP+ had New Mexico by 18.0, Elo had New Mexico by 9.4, and Our model had New Mexico by 7.8. They were within 10.2 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.