Sat Oct 3, 11:30 AM CT · Camp Randall Stadium
Our call: Wisconsin by 7.0✓ right
Final: Wisconsin 31, Michigan State 3
Closest: SP+ (Wisconsin by 9.1, missed by 18.9). 4 of 4 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Model comparison
4 of 4 models favored Wisconsin
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ Closest Michigan State +0.3 vs Wisconsin +6.9 | Wisconsin by 9.1 ✓ | Wisconsin 74% | 18.9 |
| Elo Michigan State 1510 vs Wisconsin 1612 | Wisconsin by 6.6 ✓ | Wisconsin 68% | 21.4 |
| Our model · experimental Michigan State -0.3 vs Wisconsin +2.6 | Wisconsin by 5.4 ✓ | Wisconsin 65% | 22.6 |
| Record Wisconsin 3-1, Michigan State 2-2 | Wisconsin (better record) ✓ | – | – |
| Market no market margin | n/a | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Wisconsin by 7.0 ✓ | – | 21.0 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All four models favored Wisconsin.
SP+ had Wisconsin by 9.1, Elo had Wisconsin by 6.6, and Our model had Wisconsin by 5.4. They were within 3.7 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Team pages
Michigan StateWisconsin ›Every game's projections ›