42%Our win chance58%
Our win chance: Virginia 58% · Duke 42% · experimental, see how it is tested
The prediction
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Our call: Virginia by 2.8Toss-up
All three models favor Virginia (SP+ from the week 7 snapshot). The line, shown for comparison only, has Virginia by 2.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Virginia by 2.8, Elo has Virginia by 0.3, and Our model has Virginia by 5.4. They are within 5.1 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ Duke +8.2 vs Virginia +8.5 · week 7 ratings | Virginia by 2.8 |
| Elo Duke 1637 vs Virginia 1581 | Virginia by 0.3 |
| Our model · experimental Duke +1.3 vs Virginia +4.1 | Virginia by 5.4 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Virginia by 2.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Toss-up | Virginia by 2.8 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
Duke
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
Last 5 meetings
Virginia leads 40–34 · last: Duke 27–20, 2025
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Duke 27–20 | neutral site |
| 2025 | Virginia 34–17 | Wallace Wade Stadium |
| 2023 | Virginia 30–27 | Scott Stadium |
| 2022 | Duke 38–17 | Wallace Wade Stadium |
| 2021 | Virginia 48–0 | Scott Stadium |