26%Our win chance74%
Our win chance: Utah 74% · Houston 26% · experimental, see how it is tested
The prediction
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Our call: Utah by 9.9Strong
All three models favor Utah (SP+ from the week 7 snapshot). The line, shown for comparison only, has Utah by 6.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Utah by 10.8, Elo has Utah by 14.8, and Our model has Utah by 4.0. They are within 10.8 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ Houston +15.2 vs Utah +23.5 · week 7 ratings | Utah by 10.8 |
| Elo Houston 1606 vs Utah 1914 | Utah by 14.8 |
| Our model · experimental Houston +12.2 vs Utah +13.7 | Utah by 4 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Utah by 6.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Utah by 9.9 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
Last 5 meetings
Houston leads 5–0 · last: Houston 17–14, 2024 · Houston has won 5 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Houston 17–14 | TDECU Stadium |
| 1978 | Houston 42–25 | — |
| 1977 | Houston 34–16 | — |
| 1971 | Houston 42–16 | — |
| 1966 | Houston 34–14 | — |