Next up projections
Week 7 · Sat Oct 17, 6:30 PM CT / 7:30 PM ET · TDECU Stadium (Houston) · Oklahoma State (FBS, Big 12)
Our call: Houston by 10.7Strong
All three models favor Houston. The line, shown for comparison only, has Houston by 3.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
Big game prediction page: vs Oklahoma State ›
Regression watch: Undersold last game: the play ran 10 points ahead of the 19-point win. In a 2022–25 study, teams undersold by more than 7 beat their season form by about 1.7 points the next game. More ›
Schedule: Played the 38th-toughest schedule in FBS so far (average opponent rating -1.5); 62nd-toughest remaining (+2.7). More ›
Opponents by our model's rating 6 played · 6 left
- Week 1 vs Oregon State (+4.1)
- Week 2 vs Southern (-32.8) · FCS, pooled
- Week 3 at Texas Tech (+15.9)
- Week 4 at Georgia Southern (-4.2)
- Week 5 vs UCF (+4.5)
- Week 6 at Kansas State (+3.6)
- Remaining:
- Week 7 vs Oklahoma State (-1.0)
- Week 8 at Utah (+14.4)
- Week 10 vs Cincinnati (+0.5)
- Week 11 at Colorado (-1.5)
- Week 12 at West Virginia (-2.6)
- Week 13 vs Baylor (+6.7)
Each opponent's rating from our model's week 7 snapshot, in points against an average FBS team; the averages are ranked among the 138 FBS teams. Played means through week 6. Experimental, like the Our model card.
Series: Houston leads 11–10–1 · last: Houston 39–17, 2025
Series history 22 meetings since 1951
- All-time: Houston leads 11–10–1 (22 meetings since 1951)
- Last meeting: Houston 39–17, 2025, Boone Pickens Stadium
- Streak: none
- At TDECU Stadium: Oklahoma State leads 1–0 (1 meeting)
- Biggest margins: Houston 35–9 (1966) · Oklahoma State 35–0 (1987)
- Since 2000: Houston leads 3–2 (5 meetings)
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Houston 39–17 | Boone Pickens Stadium |
| 2023 | Oklahoma State 43–30 | TDECU Stadium |
| 2009 | Houston 45–35 | Boone Pickens Stadium |
| 2008 | Oklahoma State 56–37 | Boone Pickens Stadium |
| 2006 | Houston 34–25 | Robertson Stadium |
| Rating | Houston | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +15.2 #19 | +13.3 #22 |
| Elo | 1612 | 1373 |
Projected margin for Houston · three models and the line, side by side
SP+
+4.4
Houston +15.2 vs Oklahoma State +13.3
avg miss 10.6
closest 47/79
Elo
+12.1
Houston 1612 vs Oklahoma State 1373
avg miss 12.3
closest 33/79
Line · benchmark
+3.5
pregame line
avg miss 11.1
Our model · experimental
+15.7
Houston +12.1 vs Oklahoma State -1.0
prior 50%
avg miss 11.8
closest 14/40
How to read this
- SP+ is a rating of how good a team is, in points better or worse than an average team, built from its play-by-play, so the gap between two teams' ratings is a projected margin.
- Elo is a rating that goes up with every win and down with every loss, more for beating a strong team, less for beating a weak one. The gap between two ratings is divided by 25 to turn it into points.
- The line is the pregame line, the margin the market expected, shown from Houston's side. It is not one of the models: it is shown for comparison only, as the benchmark the models and Our call are measured against.
- Our model is this site's own experimental rating, built from each team's play-by-play adjusted for who it has played, blended with a preseason estimate from last season, returning players and recruiting. "prior 67%" means 67 percent of the rating is still that preseason estimate; the share shrinks as games are played.
- In SP+, Elo and our model the home team gets 2.5 points (Houston); the line already includes the market's own home edge. The conversion to points is approximate.
- "avg miss 9.8" under a card is how far that model's projections have been from the actual margins this season, on average, in points. "closest 10/39" is how many of the season's 39 finished games that model came closest on (a tie counts for every tied model); the line, a benchmark, shows its average miss only. Shown once a model has 20 finished games.
- Our call, above the cards, is the site's prediction: the simple average of the SP+, Elo and our model margins. The pregame line is left out of it and kept as a benchmark to measure it against. Toss-up means the average is under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 or more. It is made only when all three of those models have a number, and it is scored after the game like the models.
- Each card is one method's estimate, shown side by side; when they disagree, that is worth knowing.
- After a game, the sentence under the score shows every model and the line against the actual margin: ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not (the line, a benchmark, gets no mark), and Closest: the model nearest the final margin among those present, never the line (an exact tie goes to the first listed). The "closest 10/39" counts keep the accuracy report's scoring of SP+ and Elo, where a tie credits both.
- Metrics explained: the four models and their track record ›
Efficiency matchup · season to date · Houston 6 games, Oklahoma State 5 games
Edge: Oklahoma State wins 3 of 5
Oklahoma State stops plays better, has the edge on big plays and allows fewer big plays. Houston moves the ball better and is more disruptive.
Houstonlonger bar = betterOklahoma State
-
53%✓ Moves the ballsuccessful plays 49%
-
40% Stops playssuccessful plays allowed ✓39%
-
20%✓ Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers 15%
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1.10 Big playson offense ✓1.10
-
1.32 Big plays allowedon defense ✓1.22
Run game, head to head · season to date
Houston's runs work 51% of the time; Oklahoma State's run defense allows 43%. Oklahoma State's runs work 47% of the time; Houston's run defense allows 40%.
More numbers
| Measure | Houston | Oklahoma State | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 53.3% | 48.6% | Houston |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.10 | 1.10 | Oklahoma State |
| Def. success rate allowed | 39.9% | 39.5% | Oklahoma State |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.32 | 1.22 | Oklahoma State |
| Havoc created | 19.9% | 15.3% | Houston |
- Run game, success rate: Houston offense 50.9% · Oklahoma State defense allows 42.5% · edge: Houston
- Run game, success rate: Oklahoma State offense 46.7% · Houston defense allows 40.3% · edge: even
- Run game, PPA per play: Houston offense +0.17 · Oklahoma State defense allows +0.03 · edge: even
- Run game, PPA per play: Oklahoma State offense +0.01 · Houston defense allows -0.02 · edge: Houston
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 43%, PPA per play +0.08, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
Injuries
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
Coverage (AI-assisted) · 30
Gathered by an AI model from public posts, not from CollegeFootballData. Not used in any number on this page. Verify against the linked sources. Beat coverage checked Tue Oct 13, 7:30 PM CT.
-
Fritz Named to Dodd Trophy Midseason Watch List
Houston Football Head Coach Willie Fritz advanced to the 2026 Dodd Trophy Midseason Watch List, the Bobby Dodd Coach of the Year Foundation and Peach Bowl…
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Overmyer Named John Mackey, Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award Player of the Week
After tying the NCAA single-game tight end receiving touchdown record, Houston Football's Patrick Overmyer was named the John Mackey Player of the Week and the…
-
Before the touchdown dance comes the dirty work.
Anthony Boswell touches the ball before every Houston highlight.
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Overmyer, Dougherty’s Record Setting Days Earn Big 12 Player of the Week Honors
After each posted a record day against Kansas State, Houston Football's Patrick Overmyer and Liam Dougherty were named the Big 12 Conference's Offensive and…
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The @Big12Conference will exercise a six-day window to determine kick off time and network for our matchup at Utah on Oct.
24. #BuiltByHouston x #GoCoogs
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Six-Day Window Exercised for Utah Matchup
The Big 12 Conference has announced that ESPN and FOX will use a six-day window to determine the kickoff time and network for No. 20/18 Houston Football's next…
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Willie Fritz says John Hebert suffered an ACL injury against UCF.
He should be able to go by June.
- Houston's Patrick Overmyer, whose four touchdowns tied the FBS record by a tight end, was named the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week on Monday.
- Liam Dougherty @LiamDoughertyyy wins Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Week.
-
Houston Moves Up in Top 25 in both AP, Coaches Poll
Following its 16-point victory in compelling fashion at Kansas State on Saturday, the Houston Football team moved up to No. 20 in the AP Poll and No. 18 in the…
- UH vs. Oklahoma State will be a top-20 showdown at TDECU on Saturday via @houstonchron
-
Houston climbs to No. 20 in this week's Associated Press Top 25 football poll.
Next up: No. 18 Oklahoma State.
-
Houston moves up to No. 18 in this week's USA Today US LBM Coaches Poll.
Oklahoma State is No. 20.
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Weigman-Overmyer Connection Leads #22/19 Football Past –/rv Kansas State
University of Houston senior quarterback Conner Weigman connected with junior tight end Patrick Overmyer on four touchdown passes to lead the #22/19 Cougars to…
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Weigman Advances to Golden Arm Top 15
A preseason Golden Arm selection, Houston Football quarterback Conner Weigman advanced to the Top 15 list midway through the season, the Golden Arm Foundation…
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Cougar Q&A: Humble Houston Kicker Jonathan Dimas
Houston Football kicker Jonathan Dimas has started the season a perfect 6 for 6 on field goals and was named Big 12 Conference Special Teams Player of the Week…
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Jaden Yates out this week
Jaden Yates is out this week and Muizz Tounkara is also out.
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PREVIEW: #22 Cougars, Wildcats Fight in Little Apple
The #22/19 Houston Football team heads to Kansas State for a feline frenzy clash starting at 2:30 p.m., Saturday on FOX.
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Dimas Earns First Career Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Week Honor
Houston Football kicker Jonathan Dimas earned his first Big 12 Conference Special Teams Player of the Week honor, the league announced Monday.
-
Houston-Oklahoma State’s Potential Top 25 Matchup Set for Night Kick
The No. 22 Houston Football team will kick off against No. 18 Oklahoma State at 6:30 p.m. on Oct.
-
John Hebert out for the season
Willie Fritz said running back John Hebert is out for the year.
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Yates to be evaluated today
Willie Fritz said Jaden Yates will receive a full evaluation today.
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Houston Stays in Top 25 in both AP, Coaches Poll
Following its 27-point scoring run to erase a 17-point deficit and beat UCF 27-17 on Saturday, the Houston Cougars Football team moved to No. 22 in the AP Poll…
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#20/20 Football Rallies in Big 12 Win over UCF
University of Houston senior quarterback Conner Weigman rushed for three touchdowns and junior kicker Jonathan Dimas booted a pair of field goals to lift the…
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Jaden Yates on crutches and not expected to return
Linebacker Jaden Yates is on crutches and not expected to return.
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Myles Rowser dresses for first Houston game
Myles Rowser is dressed for his first game at Houston along with Boogie Johnson.
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Built By Houston: Gridiron Galaxy
Every year, football fans across the country itch for the next awe-inspiring highlight, hype video, game promo, fan-centric event and uniform.
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Student Section Reminder: Sit in Sections 132-136 & 138-139
University of Houston students are reminded that the student section wraps around the north sideline from 132-139 (excluding 137 where the band sits).
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Know Before You Go: UCF
#20 Houston Football returns home for its inaugural Built By Houston game as UCF visits TDECU Stadium for an 11 a.m., Saturday kickoff.
- Coogs Take the Field with Bun B in Slab
1 entry about games now final not shown.
Score and result
Houston 35, Kansas State 16W
Game page: the call before kickoff and how each model did ›
Projected: SP+ n/a · Elo -7.7 ✗ · Our model +3.5 ✓ · the line (benchmark) n/a · actual +19 · Closest: Our model
Houston was as low as 42% and won
- Q2 11:47 · 4th & 1 · 57% → 84%(11:47) No Huddle #1 C.Weigman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the KSTATE28 (#88 E.Jackson), 1ST DOWN
- Q2 11:16 · 1st & 10 · 84% → 60%(11:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 C.Weigman pass incomplete short right to #9 P.Overmyer thrown to KSTATE23 broken up by #28 R.Van Wyhe
- Q2 9:56 · 1st & 2 · 59% → 73%(09:56) #1 C.Weigman pass complete short right to #9 P.Overmyer caught at KSTATE00, for 2 yards to the KSTATE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:52 #49 J.Dimas kick attempt good (H: #15 J.Sock, LS: #69 W.Edwards)
Away at Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Sat Oct 10, 2:30 PM CT / 3:30 PM ET · vs Kansas State (FBS, Big 12)
Opponent for every game-level number: Kansas State (FBS, Big 12).
- By quarter: Houston 7-14-14-0 · Kansas State 3-0-6-7
- Week 6 polls: Coaches: Houston #19 · AP: Houston #22
- Pregame Elo: Houston 1550, Kansas State 1679
- Postgame win probability: 98.5%
Verdict
The scoreboard undersold Houston: the +19 margin ran 10 points behind the +29 implied by per-play quality (PPA (expected points added per play) +0.44 vs +0.07, success rate 48% vs 47%).
The verdict compares the score with the margin the plays earned. How it is reached ›
Efficiency
Edge: Houston won 4 of 4
Houston moved the ball better, got more from each play, hit the bigger plays and was more disruptive.
Houstonlonger bar = betterKansas State
-
48%✓ Moved the ballsuccessful plays 47%
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+0.44✓ Points per playwhat a play was worth +0.07
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1.33✓ Big playssize of the good plays 0.92
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14%✓ Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers 8%
More numbers
Houston ran 75 plays, Kansas State 60. Each number is that team's offense; Kansas State's column is also what Houston's defense allowed.
| Measure | Houston | Kansas State | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPA / play | +0.44 | +0.07 | Houston |
| Total PPA | +32.9 | +4.3 | Houston |
| Success rate | 48.0% | 46.7% | Houston |
| Explosiveness | 1.33 | 0.92 | Houston |
| Havoc created | 13.6% | 8.1% | Houston |
- Success rate: how often a play did its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays were on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blew up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up. Counted from the play-by-play, so it is approximate.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play was worth to the offense. Total PPA adds up every play, and is what the Verdict compares with the score.
How to read this
- The four rows at the top compare the two offenses in this game; the longer bar is the better number, scaled within each row. A number at or below zero draws no bar.
- A check marks the better side of a row. The line above the rows counts them: it describes how the game was played, not who won it.
- Metrics explained ›
Top performers
Houston players by cumulative PPA in this game. Usage is the share of the team's plays of that type involving the player. Receiving is passing-play PPA for non-quarterbacks.
Passing
| Player | Pass usage | PPA | /play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conner Weigman QB | 100% | +25.2 | +0.97 |
Rushing
| Player | Rush usage | PPA | /play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Makhi Hughes RB | 33% | +2.2 | +0.15 |
| Conner Weigman QB | 12% | +2.1 | +0.42 |
| Koby Young WR | 2% | +2.1 | +2.14 |
| DJ Butler RB | 2% | +0.4 | +0.43 |
Receiving
| Player | Target usage | PPA | /play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Overmyer TE | 42% | +13.2 | +1.20 |
| Trent Walker WR | 15% | +6.0 | +1.51 |
| Koby Young WR | 8% | +3.2 | +1.59 |
| Luke Mcgary TE | 8% | +3.1 | +1.54 |
By play type
| Measure | Houston | Kansas State | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing PPA | +0.18 | +0.00 | Houston |
| Rushing success | 45.5% | 51.9% | Kansas State |
| Passing PPA | +0.79 | +0.15 | Houston |
| Passing success | 50.0% | 43.8% | Houston |
| Standard downs PPA | +0.35 | +0.04 | Houston |
| Standard downs success | 50.0% | 53.5% | Kansas State |
| Passing downs PPA | +0.76 | +0.15 | Houston |
| Passing downs success | 41.2% | 29.4% | Houston |
Havoc detail — Houston defense: TFL 3, sacks 2, takeaways 1, breakups 2 on 59 snaps. Kansas State defense: TFL 1, sacks 0, takeaways 0, breakups 5 on 74 snaps.
Drives
A scoring opportunity is a drive that reaches the opponent's 40-yard line or scores; points per opportunity is the points those drives produced divided by their number.
◀ HoustonKansas State ▶
By half
Shown because the game changed between halves: the per-play edge swung by 0.39 points a play (Houston +0.56 in the first half, +0.17 in the second). Overtime counts with the second half.
| Houston | Kansas State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2nd | 1st | 2nd | |
| PPA / play | +0.48 | +0.37 | -0.08 | +0.20 |
| Success rate | 50% | 44% | 36% | 56% |
| Plays | 42 | 32 | 25 | 34 |
Recruiting
Houston's 2026 class: #38 · 218.85 points.
| Measure | Houston | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 695.9 #57 of 138 |
718.7 #47 of 138 |
Transfer portal · 18 in, 17 out
Arrivals (18)
| Player | From | ★ | Elig. | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Terrill OT | Miami (OH) | 3 | Immediate | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Makhi Hughes RB | Oregon | 3 | Immediate | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Shadre Hurst IOL | Tulane | 3 | Immediate | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Hayden Wright OT | Northwestern | 3 | Immediate | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Anthony Boswell IOL | Toledo | 3 | Immediate | Jan 7, 2026 |
| De'Marion Thomas DL | Oklahoma State | 3 | Immediate | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Trent Walker WR | Oregon State | 3 | Immediate | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Patrick Overmyer TE | UTSA | 3 | Immediate | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Ejiroghene Egodogbare DL | Yale | 3 | Immediate | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Miller Malone LB | Western Kentucky | 3 | Immediate | Jan 9, 2026 |
+8 more not shown (18 total).
Departures (17)
| Player | To | ★ | Elig. | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cayden Bowie IOL | undecided | 3 | Immediate | Jan 4, 2026 |
| Zeon Chriss-Gremillion QB | Tulane | 3 | Immediate | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Reshad Sterling EDGE | Tulane | 3 | Immediate | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Zion Taylor EDGE | Sam Houston | 3 | Immediate | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Jesus Machado LB | Rice | 3 | Immediate | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Austin Carlisle QB | UL Monroe | 3 | Immediate | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Corey Platt Jr. LB | Texas Tech | 3 | Immediate | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Cavan Tuley EDGE | Missouri | 3 | Immediate | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Demetrius Hunter IOL | Colorado | 3 | Immediate | Jan 14, 2026 |
| J'Marion Burnette RB | App State | 3 | Immediate | Jan 15, 2026 |
+7 more not shown (17 total).
2026 commits · 19
| Player | Hometown | ★ | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keisean Henderson QB | Spring, TX | 5 | 0.9993 |
| John Hebert RB | Houston, TX | 4 | 0.9224 |
| Paris Melvin Jr. ATH | Cypress, TX | 4 | 0.9157 |
| Jeremiah Bushnell WR | Iowa, LA | 4 | 0.8911 |
| Jaivion Martin TE | Willis, TX | 3 | 0.8878 |
| Kaleb Walker DL | Lindale, TX | 3 | 0.8833 |
| James Henderson III CB | Houston, TX | 3 | 0.8778 |
| Isaiah Broughton DL | Houston, TX | 3 | 0.8767 |
| Keavon Roberts WR | Port Arthur, TX | 3 | 0.8767 |
| Bryson Castile LB | Arlington, TX | 3 | 0.8756 |
| Rhett Gray OT | Weatherford, TX | 3 | 0.8722 |
| Aaron Wolford IOL | Port Neches, TX | 3 | 0.8711 |
| Javen Holmes S | Baton Rouge, LA | 3 | 0.8711 |
| Troy Pless OT | Killeen, TX | 3 | 0.8644 |
| Xavier Fleming DL | Lewisville, TX | 3 | 0.8644 |
+4 more not shown (19 total).
Returning production
Share of last season's production returning for Houston in 2026.
| Unit | % PPA | PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 81.2% | 242.7 | 60.0% |
| Passing | 91.5% | 106.5 | 92.9% |
| Receiving | 61.3% | 108.5 | 49.4% |
| Rushing | 522.6% | 27.7 | 42.9% |
A figure above 100% or below 0% is expected when last season's returning players had negative PPA in that phase, since PPA can be negative.