75%Our win chance25%
Our win chance: Iowa 75% · Minnesota 25% · experimental, see how it is tested
The prediction
·
Our call: Iowa by 10.2Strong
All three models favor Iowa (SP+ from the week 7 snapshot). The line, shown for comparison only, has Iowa by 5.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Iowa by 7.6, Elo has Iowa by 14.5, and Our model has Iowa by 8.5. They are within 6.9 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ Iowa +13.0 vs Minnesota +2.9 · week 7 ratings | Iowa by 7.6 |
| Elo Iowa 1853 vs Minnesota 1427 | Iowa by 14.5 |
| Our model · experimental Iowa +11.8 vs Minnesota +0.8 | Iowa by 8.5 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Iowa by 5.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Iowa by 10.2 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
Minnesota
No injury report yet for this game. First reports usually come Wednesday.
Last 5 meetings
Minnesota leads 62–54–2 · last: Iowa 41–3, 2025 · Iowa has won 2 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Iowa 41–3 | Kinnick Stadium |
| 2024 | Iowa 31–14 | Huntington Bank Stadium |
| 2023 | Minnesota 12–10 | Kinnick Stadium |
| 2022 | Iowa 13–10 | Huntington Bank Stadium |
| 2021 | Iowa 27–22 | Kinnick Stadium |
Team pages
Iowa ›MinnesotaEvery game's projections ›