This is Week 8. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Oct 24, 9:00 PM CT · University Stadium (NM)
Our call: New Mexico by 3.2 ✓ right
Final: New Mexico 21, North Dakota State 16
Closest: Elo (New Mexico by 4.2, missed by 0.8). 8 of 9 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
8 of 9 models favored New Mexico
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Moore North Dakota State +70.8 vs New Mexico +78.1 | New Mexico by 11.2 ✓ | New Mexico 79% | 6.2 |
| ESPN FPI North Dakota State -0.2 vs New Mexico +7.8 | New Mexico by 10.5 ✓ | New Mexico 78% | 5.5 |
| Sagarin North Dakota State +67.2 vs New Mexico +73.1 | New Mexico by 9.8 ✓ | New Mexico 76% | 4.8 |
| SRS North Dakota State +2.4 vs New Mexico +7.2 | New Mexico by 7.3 ✓ | New Mexico 70% | 2.3 |
| Elo Closest North Dakota State 1634 vs New Mexico 1677 | New Mexico by 4.2 ✓ | New Mexico 62% | 0.8 |
| SP+ North Dakota State +9.5 vs New Mexico +10.6 | New Mexico by 3.6 ✓ | New Mexico 60% | 1.4 |
| The Margin The Margin's model | New Mexico by 2.4 ✓ | New Mexico 57% | 2.6 |
| Our model · experimental North Dakota State -0.5 vs New Mexico -1.1 | New Mexico by 1.9 ✓ | New Mexico 55% | 3.1 |
| Record New Mexico 5-1, North Dakota State 6-1 | North Dakota State (better record) ✗ | – | – |
| Market no market margin | n/a | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | New Mexico by 3.2 ✓ | – | 1.8 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
SP+, Elo, Our model, ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin, Sonny Moore and The Margin favored New Mexico; Record favored North Dakota State.
SP+ had New Mexico by 3.6, Elo had New Mexico by 4.2, Our model had New Mexico by 1.9, ESPN FPI had New Mexico by 10.5, SRS had New Mexico by 7.3, Sagarin had New Mexico by 9.8, Sonny Moore had New Mexico by 11.2, and The Margin had New Mexico by 2.4. They were within 9.3 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.