13%Our win chance87%
Our win chance: Miami 87% · Pittsburgh 13% · experimental, see how it is tested
The prediction
·
Our call: Miami by 17.8Strong
All three models favor Miami (SP+ from the week 7 snapshot). The line, shown for comparison only, has Miami by 23.5.
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Miami by 19.8, Elo has Miami by 16.9, and Our model has Miami by 16.8. They are within 3.0 points of each other.
Every model
| Model | Says |
|---|---|
| SP+ Pittsburgh +10.5 vs Miami +27.8 · week 7 ratings | Miami by 19.8 |
| Elo Pittsburgh 1630 vs Miami 1989 | Miami by 16.9 |
| Our model · experimental Pittsburgh +8.5 vs Miami +22.8 | Miami by 16.8 |
| Line (benchmark) pregame line | Miami by 23.5 |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Miami by 17.8 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. How these work ›
Key injuries
As of Sat Oct 17, 9:00 AM CT · official conference report and public reporting
- Mason Heintschel QB · torn ACLOut · season
As of Wed Sep 30, 6:15 AM CT · AI-assisted, from public reporting
- Josh Moore WR · upper bodyOut · season
Last 5 meetings
Miami leads 30–12–1 · last: Miami 38–7, 2025
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Miami 38–7 | Acrisure Stadium |
| 2022 | Pittsburgh 42–16 | Hard Rock Stadium |
| 2021 | Miami 38–34 | Acrisure Stadium |
| 2020 | Miami 31–19 | Hard Rock Stadium |
| 2019 | Miami 16–12 | Acrisure Stadium |