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Sat Oct 31, 2:30 PM CT · LaVell Edwards Stadium
10%Our win chance90%
Our win chance: BYU 90% · Arizona State 10% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
9 of 9 models favor BYU
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Arizona State +0.6 vs BYU +20.6 · week 8 ratings | BYU by 22.5 | BYU 95% |
| Elo Arizona State 1471 vs BYU 1708 | BYU by 12.0 | BYU 81% |
| Our model · experimental no snapshot for this game | n/a | – |
| ESPN FPI Arizona State -1.3 vs BYU +17.4 | BYU by 21.2 | BYU 94% |
| SRS Arizona State -3.9 vs BYU +18.1 | BYU by 24.5 | BYU 96% |
| Sagarin Arizona State +71.1 vs BYU +83.5 | BYU by 16.2 | BYU 88% |
| Sonny Moore Arizona State +65.1 vs BYU +78.3 | BYU by 17.2 | BYU 89% |
| The Margin The Margin's model | BYU by 19.2 | BYU 92% |
| Record BYU 6-1, Arizona State 3-3 | BYU (better record) | – |
| Market the market's pregame margin | BYU by 14.5 | BYU 85% |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · BYU 7 games, Arizona State 6 games
Edge: BYU wins 5 of 5
BYU moves the ball better, stops plays better, is more disruptive, has the edge on big plays and allows fewer big plays.
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48%✓ Moves the ballsuccessful plays 42%
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39%✓ Stops playssuccessful plays allowed 40%
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18%✓ Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers 17%
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1.25✓ Big playson offense 1.24
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1.19✓ Big plays allowedon defense 1.26
Run game, head to head · season to date
BYU's runs work 49% of the time; Arizona State's run defense allows 41%. Arizona State's runs work 41% of the time; BYU's run defense allows 40%.
More numbers
| Measure | BYU | Arizona State | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 47.9% | 42.3% | BYU |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.25 | 1.24 | BYU |
| Def. success rate allowed | 38.8% | 40.3% | BYU |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.19 | 1.26 | BYU |
| Havoc created | 17.5% | 16.6% | BYU |
- Run game, success rate: BYU offense 49.1% · Arizona State defense allows 40.6% · edge: BYU
- Run game, success rate: Arizona State offense 40.8% · BYU defense allows 40.1% · edge: BYU
- Run game, PPA per play: BYU offense +0.26 · Arizona State defense allows +0.05 · edge: BYU
- Run game, PPA per play: Arizona State offense +0.02 · BYU defense allows +0.00 · edge: BYU
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 43%, PPA per play +0.08, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
All 9 models favor BYU (SP+ from the week 8 snapshot).
Our call posts Monday when this week's ratings are set.
SP+ has BYU by 22.5, Elo has BYU by 12.0, ESPN FPI has BYU by 21.2, SRS has BYU by 24.5, Sagarin has BYU by 16.2, Sonny Moore has BYU by 17.2, The Margin has BYU by 19.2, and Market has BYU by 14.5. They are within 12.5 points of each other.
Latest (AI-assisted)
Arizona State
From the team pages' coverage of the last 72 hours: a starting quarterback, a player ruled out, suspended or dismissed, a coach change. Gathered by an AI model from public posts; not used in any number or injury status on this page. Verify against the linked sources.
Team pages
Arizona StateBYU ›Every game's projections ›