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Sat Oct 31, 11:45 AM CT · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
25%Our win chance75%
Our win chance: Ole Miss 75% · Auburn 25% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
9 of 9 models favor Ole Miss
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Auburn +8.9 vs Ole Miss +17.1 · week 8 ratings | Ole Miss by 10.7 | Ole Miss 78% |
| Elo Auburn 1669 vs Ole Miss 1923 | Ole Miss by 12.7 | Ole Miss 82% |
| Our model · experimental no snapshot for this game | n/a | – |
| ESPN FPI Auburn +13.4 vs Ole Miss +18.8 | Ole Miss by 7.8 | Ole Miss 71% |
| SRS Auburn +10.5 vs Ole Miss +17.6 | Ole Miss by 9.6 | Ole Miss 76% |
| Sagarin Auburn +82.3 vs Ole Miss +87.6 | Ole Miss by 9.0 | Ole Miss 74% |
| Sonny Moore Auburn +79.8 vs Ole Miss +86.1 | Ole Miss by 10.3 | Ole Miss 77% |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Ole Miss by 8.0 | Ole Miss 72% |
| Record Ole Miss 5-2, Auburn 4-3 | Ole Miss (better record) | – |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Ole Miss by 13.5 | Ole Miss 84% |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · Ole Miss 7 games, Auburn 7 games
Edge: Auburn wins 3 of 5
Auburn stops plays better, has the edge on big plays and allows fewer big plays. Ole Miss moves the ball better and is more disruptive.
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48%✓ Moves the ballsuccessful plays 40%
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43% Stops playssuccessful plays allowed ✓42%
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16%✓ Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers 15%
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1.23 Big playson offense ✓1.30
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1.26 Big plays allowedon defense ✓1.21
Run game, head to head · season to date
Ole Miss's runs work 48% of the time; Auburn's run defense allows 42%. Auburn's runs work 42% of the time; Ole Miss's run defense allows 44%.
More numbers
| Measure | Ole Miss | Auburn | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 48.2% | 40.4% | Ole Miss |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.23 | 1.30 | Auburn |
| Def. success rate allowed | 43.2% | 42.0% | Auburn |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.26 | 1.21 | Auburn |
| Havoc created | 16.4% | 15.2% | Ole Miss |
- Run game, success rate: Ole Miss offense 48.1% · Auburn defense allows 41.9% · edge: Ole Miss
- Run game, success rate: Auburn offense 42.5% · Ole Miss defense allows 44.1% · edge: even
- Run game, PPA per play: Ole Miss offense +0.17 · Auburn defense allows +0.09 · edge: Ole Miss
- Run game, PPA per play: Auburn offense +0.16 · Ole Miss defense allows +0.15 · edge: Auburn
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 43%, PPA per play +0.08, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
All 9 models favor Ole Miss (SP+ from the week 8 snapshot).
Our call posts Monday when this week's ratings are set.
SP+ has Ole Miss by 10.7, Elo has Ole Miss by 12.7, ESPN FPI has Ole Miss by 7.8, SRS has Ole Miss by 9.6, Sagarin has Ole Miss by 9.0, Sonny Moore has Ole Miss by 10.3, The Margin has Ole Miss by 8.0, and Market has Ole Miss by 13.5. They are within 5.7 points of each other.