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Sat Oct 31, 2:30 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
19%Our win chance81%
Our win chance: Georgia 81% · Florida 19% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
9 of 9 models favor Georgia
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Florida +9.2 vs Georgia +26.5 · week 8 ratings | Georgia by 17.3 | Georgia 89% |
| Elo Florida 1643 vs Georgia 2023 | Georgia by 15.2 | Georgia 86% |
| Our model · experimental no snapshot for this game | n/a | – |
| ESPN FPI Florida +14.3 vs Georgia +26.7 | Georgia by 12.3 | Georgia 81% |
| SRS Florida +13.7 vs Georgia +20.9 | Georgia by 7.2 | Georgia 70% |
| Sagarin Florida +85.0 vs Georgia +91.6 | Georgia by 6.6 | Georgia 68% |
| Sonny Moore Florida +79.3 vs Georgia +95.0 | Georgia by 15.7 | Georgia 87% |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Georgia by 10.6 | Georgia 78% |
| Record Georgia 6-1, Florida 5-2 | Georgia (better record) | – |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Georgia by 12.5 | Georgia 82% |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · Georgia 7 games, Florida 7 games
Edge: Florida wins 3 of 5
Florida is more disruptive, has the edge on big plays and allows fewer big plays. Georgia moves the ball and stops plays better.
-
53%✓ Moves the ballsuccessful plays 46%
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35%✓ Stops playssuccessful plays allowed 44%
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18% Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers ✓19%
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1.20 Big playson offense ✓1.23
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1.32 Big plays allowedon defense ✓1.24
Run game, head to head · season to date
Georgia's runs work 52% of the time; Florida's run defense allows 43%. Florida's runs work 44% of the time; Georgia's run defense allows 34%.
More numbers
| Measure | Georgia | Florida | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 53.1% | 45.9% | Georgia |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.20 | 1.23 | Florida |
| Def. success rate allowed | 34.9% | 43.9% | Georgia |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.32 | 1.24 | Florida |
| Havoc created | 18.1% | 19.4% | Florida |
- Run game, success rate: Georgia offense 52.4% · Florida defense allows 43.4% · edge: Georgia
- Run game, success rate: Florida offense 43.5% · Georgia defense allows 34.2% · edge: Georgia
- Run game, PPA per play: Georgia offense +0.22 · Florida defense allows +0.01 · edge: Georgia
- Run game, PPA per play: Florida offense +0.15 · Georgia defense allows -0.13 · edge: Georgia
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 43%, PPA per play +0.08, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
All 9 models favor Georgia (SP+ from the week 8 snapshot).
Our call posts Monday when this week's ratings are set.
SP+ has Georgia by 17.3, Elo has Georgia by 15.2, ESPN FPI has Georgia by 12.3, SRS has Georgia by 7.2, Sagarin has Georgia by 6.6, Sonny Moore has Georgia by 15.7, The Margin has Georgia by 10.6, and Market has Georgia by 12.5. They are within 10.7 points of each other.
Last 5 meetings
Georgia leads 58–44–2 · last: Georgia 24–20, 2025 · Georgia has won 5 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Georgia 24–20 | neutral site |
| 2024 | Georgia 34–20 | neutral site |
| 2023 | Georgia 43–20 | neutral site |
| 2022 | Georgia 42–20 | neutral site |
| 2021 | Georgia 34–7 | neutral site |