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Sat Oct 31, 11:30 AM CT · SHI Stadium
79%Our win chance21%
Our win chance: Michigan 79% · Rutgers 21% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
9 of 9 models favor Michigan
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Michigan +13.0 vs Rutgers -3.8 · week 8 ratings | Michigan by 14.3 | Michigan 85% |
| Elo Michigan 1734 vs Rutgers 1354 | Michigan by 12.7 | Michigan 82% |
| Our model · experimental no snapshot for this game | n/a | – |
| ESPN FPI Michigan +10.9 vs Rutgers -3.1 | Michigan by 11.5 | Michigan 80% |
| SRS Michigan +3.8 vs Rutgers -6.3 | Michigan by 7.6 | Michigan 71% |
| Sagarin Michigan +81.4 vs Rutgers +69.5 | Michigan by 8.1 | Michigan 72% |
| Sonny Moore Michigan +75.5 vs Rutgers +52.4 | Michigan by 19.1 | Michigan 92% |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Michigan by 11.9 | Michigan 81% |
| Record Rutgers 2-4, Michigan 4-3 | Michigan (better record) | – |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Michigan by 14 | Michigan 84% |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · Rutgers 6 games, Michigan 7 games
Edge: Michigan wins 3 of 5
Michigan stops plays better, is more disruptive and allows fewer big plays. Rutgers moves the ball better and has the edge on big plays.
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45%✓ Moves the ballsuccessful plays 40%
-
49% Stops playssuccessful plays allowed ✓35%
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13% Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers ✓16%
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1.34✓ Big playson offense 1.15
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1.31 Big plays allowedon defense ✓1.08
Run game, head to head · season to date
Rutgers's runs work 46% of the time; Michigan's run defense allows 34%. Michigan's runs work 40% of the time; Rutgers's run defense allows 50%.
More numbers
| Measure | Rutgers | Michigan | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 44.7% | 40.2% | Rutgers |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.34 | 1.15 | Rutgers |
| Def. success rate allowed | 49.2% | 34.9% | Michigan |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.31 | 1.08 | Michigan |
| Havoc created | 13.1% | 16.2% | Michigan |
- Run game, success rate: Rutgers offense 46.3% · Michigan defense allows 34.1% · edge: Michigan
- Run game, success rate: Michigan offense 40.0% · Rutgers defense allows 49.5% · edge: Michigan
- Run game, PPA per play: Rutgers offense +0.05 · Michigan defense allows -0.13 · edge: Michigan
- Run game, PPA per play: Michigan offense +0.05 · Rutgers defense allows +0.29 · edge: Michigan
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 43%, PPA per play +0.08, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
All 9 models favor Michigan (SP+ from the week 8 snapshot).
Our call posts Monday when this week's ratings are set.
SP+ has Michigan by 14.3, Elo has Michigan by 12.7, ESPN FPI has Michigan by 11.5, SRS has Michigan by 7.6, Sagarin has Michigan by 8.1, Sonny Moore has Michigan by 19.1, The Margin has Michigan by 11.9, and Market has Michigan by 14.0. They are within 11.5 points of each other.