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Sat Oct 31, 3:15 PM CT · Rose Bowl
9%Our win chance91%
Our win chance: UCLA 91% · Nevada 9% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
9 of 9 models favor UCLA
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Nevada -4.6 vs UCLA +14.0 · week 8 ratings | UCLA by 21.1 | UCLA 94% |
| Elo Nevada 1448 vs UCLA 1709 | UCLA by 12.9 | UCLA 82% |
| Our model · experimental no snapshot for this game | n/a | – |
| ESPN FPI Nevada -8.4 vs UCLA +11.0 | UCLA by 21.9 | UCLA 94% |
| SRS Nevada -8.5 vs UCLA +17.3 | UCLA by 28.3 | UCLA 98% |
| Sagarin Nevada +56.8 vs UCLA +84.2 | UCLA by 31.1 | UCLA 99% |
| Sonny Moore Nevada +57.9 vs UCLA +86.9 | UCLA by 33.1 | UCLA 99% |
| The Margin The Margin's model | UCLA by 25.6 | UCLA 97% |
| Record UCLA 7-0, Nevada 3-4 | UCLA (better record) | – |
| Market the market's pregame margin | UCLA by 22.5 | UCLA 95% |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · UCLA 7 games, Nevada 7 games
Edge: UCLA wins 3 of 5
UCLA moves the ball better, stops plays better and is more disruptive. Nevada has the edge on big plays and allows fewer big plays.
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47%✓ Moves the ballsuccessful plays 41%
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33%✓ Stops playssuccessful plays allowed 37%
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20%✓ Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers 15%
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1.10 Big playson offense ✓1.25
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1.18 Big plays allowedon defense ✓1.17
Run game, head to head · season to date
UCLA's runs work 53% of the time; Nevada's run defense allows 40%. Nevada's runs work 47% of the time; UCLA's run defense allows 37%.
More numbers
| Measure | UCLA | Nevada | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 46.8% | 40.8% | UCLA |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.10 | 1.25 | Nevada |
| Def. success rate allowed | 33.3% | 36.7% | UCLA |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.18 | 1.17 | Nevada |
| Havoc created | 20.1% | 14.9% | UCLA |
- Run game, success rate: UCLA offense 52.8% · Nevada defense allows 39.7% · edge: UCLA
- Run game, success rate: Nevada offense 46.6% · UCLA defense allows 36.8% · edge: even
- Run game, PPA per play: UCLA offense +0.20 · Nevada defense allows +0.09 · edge: UCLA
- Run game, PPA per play: Nevada offense +0.10 · UCLA defense allows -0.21 · edge: UCLA
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 43%, PPA per play +0.08, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
All 9 models favor UCLA (SP+ from the week 8 snapshot).
Our call posts Monday when this week's ratings are set.
SP+ has UCLA by 21.1, Elo has UCLA by 12.9, ESPN FPI has UCLA by 21.9, SRS has UCLA by 28.3, Sagarin has UCLA by 31.1, Sonny Moore has UCLA by 33.1, The Margin has UCLA by 25.6, and Market has UCLA by 22.5. They are within 20.1 points of each other.