This is Week 9. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Oct 31, 3:00 PM CT · CEFCU Stadium (San Jose)
Our call: New Mexico by 13.1 ✓ right
Final: New Mexico 21, San José State 16
Closest: Our model (New Mexico by 10.6, missed by 5.6). 9 of 9 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
9 of 9 models favored New Mexico
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Moore New Mexico +77.5 vs San José State +54.0 | New Mexico by 19.5 ✓ | New Mexico 92% | 14.5 |
| SRS New Mexico +8.1 vs San José State -13.7 | New Mexico by 19.3 ✓ | New Mexico 92% | 14.3 |
| ESPN FPI New Mexico +7.9 vs San José State -13.2 | New Mexico by 18.7 ✓ | New Mexico 91% | 13.7 |
| SP+ New Mexico +9.3 vs San José State -11.3 | New Mexico by 18.1 ✓ | New Mexico 90% | 13.1 |
| Sagarin New Mexico +73.3 vs San José State +53.9 | New Mexico by 15.7 ✓ | New Mexico 87% | 10.7 |
| The Margin The Margin's model | New Mexico by 14.2 ✓ | New Mexico 85% | 9.2 |
| Elo New Mexico 1680 vs San José State 1352 | New Mexico by 10.6 ✓ | New Mexico 78% | 5.6 |
| Our model · experimental Closest New Mexico +0.7 vs San José State -12.4 | New Mexico by 10.6 ✓ | New Mexico 78% | 5.6 |
| Record San José State 4-4, New Mexico 6-1 | New Mexico (better record) ✓ | – | – |
| Market no market margin | n/a | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | New Mexico by 13.1 ✓ | – | 8.1 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All 9 models favored New Mexico.
SP+ had New Mexico by 18.1, Elo had New Mexico by 10.6, Our model had New Mexico by 10.6, ESPN FPI had New Mexico by 18.7, SRS had New Mexico by 19.3, Sagarin had New Mexico by 15.7, Sonny Moore had New Mexico by 19.5, and The Margin had New Mexico by 14.2. They were within 8.9 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.