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Sat Oct 31, 6:00 PM CT · Jack Trice Stadium
44%Our win chance56%
Our win chance: Iowa State 56% · Oklahoma State 44% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
7 of 9 models favor Oklahoma State
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Oklahoma State +12.1 vs Iowa State +1.0 · week 8 ratings | Oklahoma State by 8.6 | Oklahoma State 73% |
| Elo Oklahoma State 1463 vs Iowa State 1551 | Iowa State by 6.0 | Iowa State 67% |
| Our model · experimental no snapshot for this game | n/a | – |
| ESPN FPI Oklahoma State +9.0 vs Iowa State +4.3 | Oklahoma State by 2.2 | Oklahoma State 56% |
| SRS Oklahoma State +13.9 vs Iowa State +6.1 | Oklahoma State by 5.3 | Oklahoma State 65% |
| Sagarin Oklahoma State +78.6 vs Iowa State +74.0 | Oklahoma State by 0.9 | Oklahoma State 53% |
| Sonny Moore Oklahoma State +71.3 vs Iowa State +72.0 | Iowa State by 4.7 | Iowa State 63% |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Oklahoma State by 0.2 | Oklahoma State 51% |
| Record Iowa State 3-3, Oklahoma State 5-2 | Oklahoma State (better record) | – |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Oklahoma State by 10 | Oklahoma State 76% |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · Iowa State 6 games, Oklahoma State 7 games
Edge: Oklahoma State wins 4 of 5
Oklahoma State moves the ball better, stops plays better, is more disruptive and allows fewer big plays. Iowa State has the edge on big plays.
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38% Moves the ballsuccessful plays ✓49%
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42.4% Stops playssuccessful plays allowed ✓42.1%
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15% Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers ✓16%
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1.30✓ Big playson offense 1.17
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1.28 Big plays allowedon defense ✓1.24
Run game, head to head · season to date
Iowa State's runs work 38% of the time; Oklahoma State's run defense allows 43%. Oklahoma State's runs work 47% of the time; Iowa State's run defense allows 42%.
More numbers
| Measure | Iowa State | Oklahoma State | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 38.1% | 49.5% | Oklahoma State |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.30 | 1.17 | Iowa State |
| Def. success rate allowed | 42.4% | 42.1% | Oklahoma State |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.28 | 1.24 | Oklahoma State |
| Havoc created | 15.1% | 15.7% | Oklahoma State |
- Run game, success rate: Iowa State offense 38.4% · Oklahoma State defense allows 43.2% · edge: Oklahoma State
- Run game, success rate: Oklahoma State offense 47.5% · Iowa State defense allows 42.0% · edge: Oklahoma State
- Run game, PPA per play: Iowa State offense +0.09 · Oklahoma State defense allows +0.00 · edge: Oklahoma State
- Run game, PPA per play: Oklahoma State offense +0.05 · Iowa State defense allows +0.07 · edge: even
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 43%, PPA per play +0.08, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
SP+, ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin, The Margin, Record and Market favor Oklahoma State; Elo and Sonny Moore favor Iowa State (SP+ from the week 8 snapshot).
Our call posts Monday when this week's ratings are set.
SP+ has Oklahoma State by 8.6, Elo has Iowa State by 6.0, ESPN FPI has Oklahoma State by 2.2, SRS has Oklahoma State by 5.3, Sagarin has Oklahoma State by 0.9, Sonny Moore has Iowa State by 4.7, The Margin has Oklahoma State by 0.2, and Market has Oklahoma State by 10.0. The furthest apart are 16.0 points from each other.