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Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM CT · JMA Wireless Dome
77%Our win chance23%
Our win chance: SMU 77% · Syracuse 23% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
9 of 9 models favor SMU
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ SMU +12.9 vs Syracuse -2.3 · week 8 ratings | SMU by 12.7 | SMU 82% |
| Elo SMU 1759 vs Syracuse 1328 | SMU by 14.7 | SMU 86% |
| Our model · experimental no snapshot for this game | n/a | – |
| ESPN FPI SMU +9.8 vs Syracuse +0.5 | SMU by 6.8 | SMU 69% |
| SRS SMU +4.1 vs Syracuse -0.4 | SMU by 2 | SMU 56% |
| Sagarin SMU +78.2 vs Syracuse +71.2 | SMU by 3.2 | SMU 59% |
| Sonny Moore SMU +76.0 vs Syracuse +71.2 | SMU by 0.9 | SMU 53% |
| The Margin The Margin's model | SMU by 5.7 | SMU 66% |
| Record Syracuse 2-4, SMU 6-1 | SMU (better record) | – |
| Market the market's pregame margin | SMU by 9.5 | SMU 75% |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · Syracuse 6 games, SMU 7 games
Edge: SMU wins 3 of 5
SMU moves the ball better, stops plays better and is more disruptive. Syracuse has the edge on big plays and allows fewer big plays.
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42% Moves the ballsuccessful plays ✓49%
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43% Stops playssuccessful plays allowed ✓38%
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18% Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers ✓19%
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1.28✓ Big playson offense 1.26
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1.24✓ Big plays allowedon defense 1.33
Run game, head to head · season to date
Syracuse's runs work 44% of the time; SMU's run defense allows 43%. SMU's runs work 48% of the time; Syracuse's run defense allows 44%.
More numbers
| Measure | Syracuse | SMU | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 42.2% | 49.3% | SMU |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.28 | 1.26 | Syracuse |
| Def. success rate allowed | 42.6% | 37.8% | SMU |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.24 | 1.33 | Syracuse |
| Havoc created | 18.4% | 19.3% | SMU |
- Run game, success rate: Syracuse offense 44.4% · SMU defense allows 43.2% · edge: even
- Run game, success rate: SMU offense 47.7% · Syracuse defense allows 43.8% · edge: SMU
- Run game, PPA per play: Syracuse offense +0.09 · SMU defense allows +0.10 · edge: even
- Run game, PPA per play: SMU offense +0.08 · Syracuse defense allows +0.14 · edge: SMU
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 43%, PPA per play +0.08, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
All 9 models favor SMU (SP+ from the week 8 snapshot).
Our call posts Monday when this week's ratings are set.
SP+ has SMU by 12.7, Elo has SMU by 14.7, ESPN FPI has SMU by 6.8, SRS has SMU by 2.0, Sagarin has SMU by 3.2, Sonny Moore has SMU by 0.9, The Margin has SMU by 5.7, and Market has SMU by 9.5. They are within 13.9 points of each other.
Team pages
SMU ›SyracuseEvery game's projections ›