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Sat Oct 31, 3:15 PM CT · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
39%Our win chance61%
Our win chance: Oklahoma 61% · South Carolina 39% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
8 of 9 models favor Oklahoma
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ South Carolina +10.0 vs Oklahoma +9.8 · week 8 ratings | Oklahoma by 2.3 | Oklahoma 57% |
| Elo South Carolina 1702 vs Oklahoma 1719 | Oklahoma by 3.2 | Oklahoma 59% |
| Our model · experimental no snapshot for this game | n/a | – |
| ESPN FPI South Carolina +11.6 vs Oklahoma +13.3 | Oklahoma by 4.2 | Oklahoma 62% |
| SRS South Carolina +8.7 vs Oklahoma +6.6 | Oklahoma by 0.4 | Oklahoma 51% |
| Sagarin South Carolina +82.0 vs Oklahoma +84.2 | Oklahoma by 6.0 | Oklahoma 67% |
| Sonny Moore South Carolina +81.9 vs Oklahoma +77.0 | South Carolina by 0.9 | South Carolina 53% |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Oklahoma by 2.9 | Oklahoma 58% |
| Record Oklahoma 4-3, South Carolina 4-3 | Oklahoma (better record) | – |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Oklahoma by 4 | Oklahoma 61% |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · Oklahoma 7 games, South Carolina 7 games
Edge: South Carolina wins 3 of 5
South Carolina moves the ball better, has the edge on big plays and allows fewer big plays. Oklahoma stops plays better and is more disruptive.
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37% Moves the ballsuccessful plays ✓45%
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34%✓ Stops playssuccessful plays allowed 42%
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18%✓ Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers 14%
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1.14 Big playson offense ✓1.27
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1.20 Big plays allowedon defense ✓1.19
Run game, head to head · season to date
Oklahoma's runs work 35% of the time; South Carolina's run defense allows 42%. South Carolina's runs work 48% of the time; Oklahoma's run defense allows 33%.
More numbers
| Measure | Oklahoma | South Carolina | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 36.9% | 44.6% | South Carolina |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.14 | 1.27 | South Carolina |
| Def. success rate allowed | 33.5% | 42.4% | Oklahoma |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.20 | 1.19 | South Carolina |
| Havoc created | 18.4% | 14.2% | Oklahoma |
- Run game, success rate: Oklahoma offense 34.7% · South Carolina defense allows 42.1% · edge: South Carolina
- Run game, success rate: South Carolina offense 47.9% · Oklahoma defense allows 33.2% · edge: Oklahoma
- Run game, PPA per play: Oklahoma offense -0.19 · South Carolina defense allows -0.03 · edge: South Carolina
- Run game, PPA per play: South Carolina offense +0.24 · Oklahoma defense allows -0.06 · edge: even
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 43%, PPA per play +0.08, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
SP+, Elo, ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin, The Margin, Record and Market favor Oklahoma; Sonny Moore favors South Carolina (SP+ from the week 8 snapshot).
Our call posts Monday when this week's ratings are set.
SP+ has Oklahoma by 2.3, Elo has Oklahoma by 3.2, ESPN FPI has Oklahoma by 4.2, SRS has Oklahoma by 0.4, Sagarin has Oklahoma by 6.0, Sonny Moore has South Carolina by 0.9, The Margin has Oklahoma by 2.9, and Market has Oklahoma by 4.0. The furthest apart are 6.9 points from each other.