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Sat Oct 31, 2:15 PM CT · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
5%Our win chance95%
Our win chance: Louisville 95% · Stanford 5% · experimental, see how it is tested
Kickoff corrected (source: gocards.com, checked Oct 21, 2026).
Model comparison
9 of 9 models favor Louisville
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Stanford -11.2 vs Louisville +12.9 · week 8 ratings | Louisville by 26.6 | Louisville 97% |
| Elo Stanford 1157 vs Louisville 1713 | Louisville by 24.7 | Louisville 96% |
| Our model · experimental no snapshot for this game | n/a | – |
| ESPN FPI Stanford -11.4 vs Louisville +13.3 | Louisville by 27.2 | Louisville 98% |
| SRS Stanford -10.1 vs Louisville +10.7 | Louisville by 23.3 | Louisville 95% |
| Sagarin Stanford +60.6 vs Louisville +82.2 | Louisville by 25.4 | Louisville 97% |
| Sonny Moore Stanford +54.0 vs Louisville +84.6 | Louisville by 34.6 | Louisville 99% |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Louisville by 23.7 | Louisville 96% |
| Record Louisville 4-3, Stanford 3-4 | Louisville (better record) | – |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Louisville by 22.5 | Louisville 95% |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · Louisville 7 games, Stanford 7 games
Edge: Louisville wins 5 of 5
Louisville moves the ball better, stops plays better, is more disruptive, has the edge on big plays and allows fewer big plays.
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48%✓ Moves the ballsuccessful plays 40%
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42%✓ Stops playssuccessful plays allowed 47%
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15%✓ Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers 11%
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1.45✓ Big playson offense 1.27
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1.22✓ Big plays allowedon defense 1.37
Run game, head to head · season to date
Louisville's runs work 48% of the time; Stanford's run defense allows 51%. Stanford's runs work 40% of the time; Louisville's run defense allows 44%.
More numbers
| Measure | Louisville | Stanford | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 48.3% | 40.1% | Louisville |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.45 | 1.27 | Louisville |
| Def. success rate allowed | 41.9% | 47.0% | Louisville |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.22 | 1.37 | Louisville |
| Havoc created | 15.3% | 11.1% | Louisville |
- Run game, success rate: Louisville offense 48.2% · Stanford defense allows 50.7% · edge: Louisville
- Run game, success rate: Stanford offense 40.2% · Louisville defense allows 44.4% · edge: even
- Run game, PPA per play: Louisville offense +0.23 · Stanford defense allows +0.30 · edge: Louisville
- Run game, PPA per play: Stanford offense +0.04 · Louisville defense allows +0.00 · edge: Louisville
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 43%, PPA per play +0.08, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
All 9 models favor Louisville (SP+ from the week 8 snapshot).
Our call posts Monday when this week's ratings are set.
SP+ has Louisville by 26.6, Elo has Louisville by 24.7, ESPN FPI has Louisville by 27.2, SRS has Louisville by 23.3, Sagarin has Louisville by 25.4, Sonny Moore has Louisville by 34.6, The Margin has Louisville by 23.7, and Market has Louisville by 22.5. They are within 12.1 points of each other.
Last 1 meeting
Stanford leads 1–0 · last: Stanford 38–35, 2024
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Stanford 38–35 | Stanford Stadium |