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Sat Oct 31, 9:00 PM CT · Albertsons Stadium
33%Our win chance67%
Our win chance: Boise State 67% · Texas State 33% · experimental, see how it is tested
Model comparison
9 of 9 models favor Boise State
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Texas State +2.5 vs Boise State +9.4 · week 8 ratings | Boise State by 9.4 | Boise State 75% |
| Elo Texas State 1565 vs Boise State 1718 | Boise State by 8.6 | Boise State 73% |
| Our model · experimental no snapshot for this game | n/a | – |
| ESPN FPI Texas State -0.1 vs Boise State +11.4 | Boise State by 14.0 | Boise State 84% |
| SRS Texas State +7.3 vs Boise State +11.9 | Boise State by 7.1 | Boise State 70% |
| Sagarin Texas State +69.3 vs Boise State +75.3 | Boise State by 9.8 | Boise State 76% |
| Sonny Moore Texas State +67.5 vs Boise State +82.3 | Boise State by 18.8 | Boise State 91% |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Boise State by 14.1 | Boise State 85% |
| Record Boise State 6-1, Texas State 4-3 | Boise State (better record) | – |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Boise State by 11.5 | Boise State 80% |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). How these work ›
Matchup efficiency
Efficiency matchup · season to date · Boise State 7 games, Texas State 7 games
Edge: Texas State wins 3 of 5
Texas State moves the ball better, has the edge on big plays and allows fewer big plays. Boise State stops plays better and is more disruptive.
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48% Moves the ballsuccessful plays ✓51%
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36%✓ Stops playssuccessful plays allowed 44%
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18%✓ Disruptionsacks, TFLs, turnovers 15%
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1.267 Big playson offense ✓1.272
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1.58 Big plays allowedon defense ✓1.25
Run game, head to head · season to date
Boise State's runs work 48% of the time; Texas State's run defense allows 39%. Texas State's runs work 50% of the time; Boise State's run defense allows 35%.
More numbers
| Measure | Boise State | Texas State | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off. success rate | 47.7% | 50.9% | Texas State |
| Off. explosiveness | 1.27 | 1.27 | Texas State |
| Def. success rate allowed | 36.4% | 44.1% | Boise State |
| Def. explosiveness allowed | 1.58 | 1.25 | Texas State |
| Havoc created | 18.3% | 14.6% | Boise State |
- Run game, success rate: Boise State offense 48.4% · Texas State defense allows 38.8% · edge: even
- Run game, success rate: Texas State offense 50.2% · Boise State defense allows 35.3% · edge: even
- Run game, PPA per play: Boise State offense +0.26 · Texas State defense allows -0.02 · edge: Boise State
- Run game, PPA per play: Texas State offense +0.25 · Boise State defense allows +0.09 · edge: Texas State
- Success rate: how often a play does its job, gaining enough yards to keep the offense on schedule.
- Explosiveness: how big a team's successful plays are on average; a higher number means more big gains.
- Havoc: how often the defense blows up a play with a sack, a tackle for loss, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- PPA (predicted points added): how many points an average play is worth to the offense; above zero is good for the offense, below zero good for the defense.
How to read this
- Each row compares the two teams on one measure of how well they have played this season, offense and defense, using every game so far with garbage time (plays late in a decided game) left out.
- The run game rows pair one team's rushing offense with the other's run defense. The row goes to whichever side is further from the FBS baseline this season, the offense by how far it runs above it, the defense by how much less it allows (baseline: run success rate 43%, PPA per play +0.08, the midpoint of what FBS offenses gain and FBS defenses allow, since both also play FCS teams), so two strong sides or two weak ones are judged by which is the more so. Edges within 3 points of success rate or 0.05 PPA are even. A strong run offense against a weak run defense is where a team can control the game on the ground.
- In the five rows at the top the longer bar is the better number: bars are scaled within each row, and in the two "allowed" rows the lower number gets the longer bar.
- Success rate is the share of plays that kept the offense on schedule (half the yards needed on first down, most of them on second, all of them on third or fourth). Explosiveness is how big the successful plays were, on average, in points. Havoc is the share of the opponent's snaps the defense wrecked: a tackle for loss, a sack, a takeaway or a pass broken up.
- "Allowed" rows are what each defense gave up, so the lower value wins.
- These are not adjusted for who each team has played, so a light schedule flatters a team, and early in the season they rest on very few games.
- Metrics explained: success rate, explosiveness and havoc ›
The prediction
All 9 models favor Boise State (SP+ from the week 8 snapshot).
Our call posts Monday when this week's ratings are set.
SP+ has Boise State by 9.4, Elo has Boise State by 8.6, ESPN FPI has Boise State by 14.0, SRS has Boise State by 7.1, Sagarin has Boise State by 9.8, Sonny Moore has Boise State by 18.8, The Margin has Boise State by 14.1, and Market has Boise State by 11.5. They are within 11.7 points of each other.
Team pages
Texas StateBoise State ›Every game's projections ›