This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Nov 7, 2:30 PM CT · Fox · TDECU Stadium (Houston)
Our call: Houston by 9.1 · 73% pregame win chance ✓ right
27%Our win chance73%
Our win chance: Houston 73% · Cincinnati 27% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: Houston 31, Cincinnati 24 · our call right
Final: Houston 31, Cincinnati 24
Closest: Elo (Houston by 6.7, missed by 0.3). 10 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
10 of 10 models favored Houston
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Margin The Margin's model | Houston by 14.1 ✓ | Houston 85% | 7.1 |
| SRS Cincinnati +4.9 vs Houston +16.3 | Houston by 13.9 ✓ | Houston 84% | 6.9 |
| Sonny Moore Cincinnati +76.1 vs Houston +85.7 | Houston by 13.6 ✓ | Houston 84% | 6.6 |
| ESPN FPI Cincinnati +4.6 vs Houston +14.0 | Houston by 11.9 ✓ | Houston 81% | 4.9 |
| Our model · experimental Cincinnati +1.6 vs Houston +10.7 | Houston by 11.6 ✓ | Houston 80% | 4.6 |
| Sagarin Cincinnati +73.3 vs Houston +81.6 | Houston by 11.0 ✓ | Houston 79% | 4.0 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Houston by 10.5 ✓ | Houston 78% | 3.5 |
| SP+ Cincinnati +6.7 vs Houston +13.3 · week 9 ratings | Houston by 9.1 ✓ | Houston 74% | 2.1 |
| Elo Closest Cincinnati 1509 vs Houston 1615 | Houston by 6.7 ✓ | Houston 69% | 0.3 |
| Record Houston 6-2, Cincinnati 5-3 | Houston (better record) ✓ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Houston by 9.1 ✓ | Houston 73% | 2.1 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
All 10 models favored Houston (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had Houston by 9.1, Elo had Houston by 6.7, Our model had Houston by 11.6, ESPN FPI had Houston by 11.9, SRS had Houston by 13.9, Sagarin had Houston by 11.0, Sonny Moore had Houston by 13.6, The Margin had Houston by 14.1, and Market had Houston by 10.5. They were within 7.3 points of each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Nov 7, 2:27 PM CT).
Last 5 meetings
tied 15–15 · last: Cincinnati 34–0, 2024 · Cincinnati has won 5 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Cincinnati 34–0 | Nippert Stadium |
| 2023 | Cincinnati 24–14 | TDECU Stadium |
| 2021 | Cincinnati 35–20 | Nippert Stadium |
| 2020 | Cincinnati 38–10 | Nippert Stadium |
| 2019 | Cincinnati 38–23 | TDECU Stadium |