This is Week 10. Week 11 games are out →
Sat Nov 7, 6:30 PM CT · Fox · Ryan Field (Evanston)
Our call: Iowa by 0.3 · 51% pregame win chance ✓ right
51%Our win chance49%
Our win chance: Iowa 51% · Northwestern 49% · experimental, see how it is tested
Final: Iowa 24, Northwestern 10 · our call right
Final: Iowa 24, Northwestern 10
Closest: Elo (Iowa by 4.0, missed by 10.0). 3 of 10 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Records on this page are each team's record entering the game; the team pages and the scores page count this result.
Model comparison
7 of 10 models favored Northwestern
| Model | Says | Pregame win chance | Missed by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo Closest Iowa 1909 vs Northwestern 1746 | Iowa by 4.0 ✓ | Iowa 61% | 10.0 |
| SP+ Iowa +12.4 vs Northwestern +13.7 · week 9 ratings | Northwestern by 3.8 ✗ | Northwestern 61% | 17.8 |
| SRS Iowa +14.3 vs Northwestern +14.3 | Northwestern by 2.5 ✗ | Northwestern 57% | 16.5 |
| ESPN FPI Iowa +13.9 vs Northwestern +13.5 | Northwestern by 2.2 ✗ | Northwestern 56% | 16.2 |
| Market the market's pregame margin | Northwestern by 1.5 ✗ | Northwestern 54% | 15.5 |
| The Margin The Margin's model | Northwestern by 0.8 ✗ | Northwestern 52% | 14.8 |
| Sonny Moore Iowa +90.3 vs Northwestern +87.0 | Northwestern by 0.7 ✗ | Northwestern 52% | 14.7 |
| Our model · experimental Iowa +12.5 vs Northwestern +9.3 | Iowa by 0.6 ✓ | Iowa 52% | 13.4 |
| Sagarin Iowa +85.4 vs Northwestern +82.2 | Iowa by 0.5 ✓ | Iowa 51% | 13.5 |
| Record Northwestern 6-2, Iowa 6-2 | Northwestern (better record) ✗ | – | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model | Iowa by 0.3 ✓ | Iowa 51% | 13.7 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; Market is the margin the market expected before kickoff; ESPN FPI, SRS, Sagarin and Sonny Moore are rating gaps like SP+'s (each with its own home field), The Margin is that site's own model, and Record names the team with the better record (the home team on equal records). ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
How the models read it
SP+, ESPN FPI, SRS, Sonny Moore, The Margin, Record and Market favored Northwestern; Elo, Our model and Sagarin favored Iowa (SP+ from the week 9 snapshot).
SP+ had Northwestern by 3.8, Elo had Iowa by 4.0, Our model had Iowa by 0.6, ESPN FPI had Northwestern by 2.2, SRS had Northwestern by 2.5, Sagarin had Iowa by 0.5, Sonny Moore had Northwestern by 0.7, The Margin had Northwestern by 0.8, and Market had Northwestern by 1.5. The furthest apart are 7.8 points from each other.
Frozen at kickoff: these are the projections and the call as they stood before the game (last recorded Sat Nov 7, 6:04 PM CT).
Last 5 meetings
Iowa leads 55–28–3 · last: Iowa 40–14, 2024 · Iowa has won 4 straight
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Iowa 40–14 | Kinnick Stadium |
| 2023 | Iowa 10–7 | neutral site |
| 2022 | Iowa 33–13 | Kinnick Stadium |
| 2021 | Iowa 17–12 | Ryan Field |
| 2020 | Northwestern 21–20 | Kinnick Stadium |